東京都帰宅困難者対策条例を考慮した徒歩帰宅者数の推定

抄録

 The Tokyo Metropolitan Government enforced an "Ordinance for Comprehensively Promoting Measures for Stranded Persons" on April 1st, 2013. In this paper, we investigate people's behavior after a large earthquake, which varies according to their personal attributes and various conditions, through a questionnaire survey. Next, we construct a model describing the people's decision-making to return home or stay at their work places, by a nested logit model. Finally we estimate the number of people returning home on foot after a large earthquake, and evaluate whether the ordinance can reduce the number of such people in the Tokyo metropolitan area.