The world population is continually increasing. On the other hand, Japanese population is decreasing. The Japanese population in 2050 was less than 100 million people. Also, 40% of the people were over the age of 65 for the year 2060. The data shows that declining birth rate and population aging rate is progressing. Formations of urban structures are needed to solve such problems. The local government is considering a compact city project, which can recover the vitality of the central district and life base for residents. However, the urban structure has been sprawl, with unplanned developments in the suburbs and a decline of the central district. Due to this, a planning method is needed for the formation of a concentration urban structure. This will begin to address the issues of a declining population, birth rate and central district by local government.
In this study, we develop the “Population Migration Tool” based on plural master plan of the local government, and we form concentration urban structure model. And, we aim to consider about urban structure that local city should target in the future.
In this study, the target area is the Yamaguchi which is the capital of the Yamaguchi prefectural and the city of Hofu which has over 100,000 people. At first, we analyze urban structure by land use and population distribution using 100 meter mesh data. Next, we form a future population distribution of 100 meter mesh after we estimate of future population using a primary factors cohort. Also, we develop “Population Migration Tool” based on plural master plan. Moreover, we form the concentration urban structure model based on the tool. And we simulate the future urban structure by the model. Lastly, we evaluate the model.
The results are as follows.
(1) The future population decrease, also, the future urban structure is predicted to become low density.
(2) As a result of the formation population structure, the future population decrease, also, the future urban structure is predicted to become low density.
(3) We form the concentration urban structure model with the population migration tool. The rules of the tool can change arbitrarily. We can form variety the concentration urban structure models.
(4) As a result of the formation of concentration urban structure model, the model becomes high density population and traffic convenience increases.