1. Background and purpose of the research
In the metropolitan area, various large-scale earthquakes such as a direct type are assumed. The maximum of the affected population of the earthquake, are expected to be about 160,000 people. For that reason, the municipalities of Tokyo and the capital are planning to establish first-aid medical stations (hereinafter called FAMS). In this research, assuming that FAMS are opened in elementary schools, we simulate based on the estimated number of affected patients and examine the following issues. 1) How many people in the victim can correspond with the number of assumed medical staff? Conversely, what countermeasures can be considered by the assumed number of doctors and nurses? 2) What is the area required for each function? 3) Are there other issues to consider?
2. Outline of the simulation
In this research, we apply multi agent simulation to reproduce and predict outpatient behavior in hospital. The simulation of this study considers sufferers as outpatients and makes them act at FAMS according to the assumed behavior patterns. Afflicted patients stop by each functions of reception, triage, treatment, etc. in the virtual space of the elementary school designated as FAMS, according to the situation of the disaster, based on the preset behavior pattern. As with outpatient simulation, the waiting time, etc. for each tag color are calculated. Four physicians, four nurses and administrative staffs will be placed at the FAMS. The total number of expected disaster affected people is 500. The arrival time distribution of red and black affected patients was calculated from the record of KN Hospital at the time of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake.
3. Summary of the research
Based on the assumed damages in Shinjuku Ward, when designating elementary school as FAMS, we will summarize the results of examination according to the purpose of this paper.
1) Because waiting for treatment is occurring in seriously affected patients, we found that there is a problem with the number of staff or countermeasures (measures to assign classroom of elementary school by tag color).
2) It was also found that there was a problem in the situation that causalities (red) waited to be delivered to an appropriate medical institution after temporary treatment was given. Therefore, it is considered effective to designate a triage place or a place to perform initial treatment and a hospital which is going to do full-scale treatment as a set.
3) After the disaster affected patients receive treatment, they will wait for recovery in that room. Therefore, at regarding FAMS, it is necessary to consider in advance how much room area is secured. It is also necessary for the patients (green and yellow) waiting for recovery to return home as soon as possible.
4) For transporting seriously affected patients including death and sudden change, it is necessary to consider relying on volunteers as well as municipal officials. Meanwhile, there is a problem such as how to move a suddenly changing patient when they are performing treatment / recovery observation to a sufferer in a room corresponding to each.
