A Simple Risk Score to Predict In-Hospital Death of Elderly Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Hypoalbuminemia as an Additional Prognostic Factor

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Background: Risk stratification for elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) may help clinicians to select the appropriate therapy and raise the quality of care. Methods and Results: The present study enrolled 349 patients aged over 65 years who were hospitalized with ADHF from January 2004 to October 2008. Five independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and each factor was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient: prior heart failure hospitalization (2points), sodium ≤138 mmol/L (2points), BUN ≥35 mg/dl (2points), albumin ≤3.2 g/dl (3points), and BNP ≥980 pg/ml (2points); in particular, hypoalbuminemia was identified as the strongest prognostic factor. The patients were stratified into 3 groups: low risk (0-4points), moderate risk (5-7points), and high risk (8-11points). The respective in-hospital mortality rates were 1.6%, 15.8%, and 42.1% (P<0.05). Conclusions: In addition to known prognostic factors, hypoalbuminemia may provide important information for elderly patients with ADHF. A simple risk score may help to stratify the risk of in-hospital mortality and contribute to better clinical management of these elderly patients. (Circ J 2009; 73: 2276-2281)