Simple Risk Score to Predict Survival in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure　― A₂B Score ―

抄録

Background: Prognosis after acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is poor. An appropriate risk score that would allow for improved care and treatment of ADHF patients after discharge, however, is lacking.

Methods and Results: We used 2 HF cohorts, the NARA-HF study and JCARE-CARD, as derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The primary endpoint was all-cause death during the 2-year follow-up, excluding in-hospital death. Age, hemoglobin (Hb), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) at discharge were identified as independent risk factors. We determined 3 categorizations on the basis of these parameters, termed A₂B score: age (<65 years, 0; 65–74 years, 1; ≥75 years, 2), anemia (Hb <10 g/dL, 2; 10–11.9 g/dL, 1; ≥12 g/dL, 0) and BNP (<200 pg/mL, 0; 200–499 pg/mL, 1; ≥500 pg/mL, 2). We divided patients into 4 groups according to A₂B score (extremely low, 0; low, 1–2; medium, 3–4; high, 5–6). For the extremely low-risk group, the 2-year survival rate was 97.8%, compared with 84.5%, 66.1%, and 45.2% for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Using the JCARE-CARD as a validation model, for the extremely low-risk group, the 2-year survival was 95.4%, compared with 90.2%, 75.0%, and 55.6% for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively.

Conclusions: The user-friendly A₂B score is useful for estimating survival rate in ADHF patients at discharge.