Circulation Journal
Online ISSN : 1347-4820
Print ISSN : 1346-9843
ISSN-L : 1346-9843
Population Science
Risk Prediction Model for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population ― The Hisayama Study ―
Jun HataTakuya NagataSatoko SakataEmi OishiYoshihiko FurutaYoichiro HirakawaTakanori HondaDaigo YoshidaTakanari KitazonoToshiharu Ninomiya
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Supplementary material

2021 Volume 85 Issue 8 Pages 1373-1382


Background:The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.

Methods and Results:A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell’s c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years.

Conclusions:The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

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