Review of Past Urban Transportation Studies and Implication for Improvement on Travel Surveys and Demand Forecasting Methods in Developing Countries

抄録

Japan International Cooperation Agency has provided assistance in urban transport planning for over 60 metropolitan cities of developing countries by conducting urban transportation studies that included large-scale household travel surveys (HTS) as a main means of understanding current situation of travel movements. In the past HTS in developing countries, it is common to set sampling ratios of 1% to 3% in order to secure statistically effective samples involving a great number of respondents and spending considerable time and cost. As for a travel demand forecasting method based on the HTS, a trip-based approach represented by the four-step method has been widely in use; however, this approach has several drawbacks. With these issues as a background, this paper aims at extracting issues of travel surveys and demand forecasting methods and studying directions for improvement with a view to reorganizing the contents for future cooperation. Based on the result of the reviews and interviews of the 12 urban transportation studies, this paper identified and organized common issues and problems in terms of travel surveys with a main focus on HTS, travel demand forecasting methods, and cooperation needs in the urban transportation sector. Directions for improvement on travel surveys and demand forecasting methods in developing countries that should be further pursued in this research are 1) improvement of accuracy in travel demand forecast, 2) travel surveys and demand forecasting methods tailored for study objectives and cooperation needs, 3) reduction of required time for travel survey and demand forecast, and 4) reduction of cost for travel survey and demand forecast.