抄録
A concept of sustainability has become a paradigm in urban development and there is also a belief that the sustainability could be achieved by compact development. Although there are many representation of compactness such as high density city, a mixed-used city, or transit oriented development, most of the discussions are only descriptive. This paper presents a quantitative analysis scheme that takes into accounts long range of time over generations of the residents. This approach of analysis has made the sustainability and compact city be discussed more clearly and effectively. The analysis is based on the empirical result of TRANUS Sapporo model. The simulation framework of decreased population in the later year is assumed based on the real population trend in Japan. It is found that the city will be sprawled if no appropriate policy measure is taken, but the city will become more compact and sustainable when combinations of appropriate policy measures are taken. The sustainability is evaluated from several aspects: as land-use, transportation, environmental, and, most importantly, financial viewpoints which consider the development cost.
