The Update of the Parameters in Activity-Based Simulation by Assimilation into Mobile Spatial Statistics

抄録

The activity-based model (ABM) has been employed to forecast travel demand forecasting. However, this approach has significant shortcomings: the controversy over its alternative specific constant (ASC)'s temporal stability. To enhance such stability, various studies have tested different methods to update ASC. In this study, we propose another method of such an update that applies big data to the ABM-based simulation. This is to assimilate activity simulation to mobile spatial statistics (MSS), an estimated population data recorded by the of mobile phone connection. Because MSS can be estimated longitudinally, we can see the temporal variation of the ASC. In the empirical test, we reduced at least by 25% the distance between the number of people staying in the zone by the ABM simulation and the number of people staying in the zone of MSS.