2019 年 5 巻 3 号 p. 480-492
This study aims to investigate important factors affecting intention for ceasing driving in the local city in Japan. 321 elder driver data collected in Toyota City are used for empirical analysis. One trivariate ordered probit model is used to measure anxiety about driving, the intention for continuing driving and that for surrendering driving licenses in one framework. The Gibbs Sampler algorithm is applied to estimate the unknown parameters. The major findings indicate: 1) elder drivers more than 74 years old are willing to return their driving licenses compared to elder drivers between 69 and 74 years old; 2) elder drivers liking to drive are unwilling to cease driving compared to other drivers; 3) there is a synergetic effect between anxiety about driving with intention for surrendering driving licenses; and 4) there is a complementary effect between intention for continuing driving and that for returning driving licenses as we expected.
