ユーロ危機とEUの将来

抄録

Since the outbreak of the Euro Crisis in 2009, it the “collapse” of the EU has ofton been predictecl In this paper, we will examine causes of the Euro Crisis and discuss the EU’s future, by focusing on its fiscal system.
The ratio of the accumulated public debt to GDP in the EU continued to grow throughout the 1980s, indicating that there had been strong deficit-bias in fiscal policies in the EU. Therefore, it was believed among policy planners that fiscal rules should be introduced in order to curb growing budgetary deficits, some of the examples being the so-called “Maastricht Criteria” and the “Stability and Growth Pact”.
However, due to the “flexible” interpretations of the Pact aftermath of German unification and also, due to massive capital inflows into some member states which were accelerated by the zero risk rating of national bonds of these member states in financial markets, tliere was an apparent loss of fiscal disciplines in these states. Against this background, the sovereign debt crisis and the subsequent Euro Crisis erupled.
In order to tackle the Euro Crisis, the EU has implemented various measures, among which are EFSF (European Financial Stabilisation Facility) and ESM (European Stabilisation Mechanism) in the financial sector. Furthermore, in the fiscal policy, it has introduced the Fiscal Compact which requires most of member states to exercise fiscal discipline and the European Semester by which member states’ budgetary plans have to be examined by the EU, before these governments submit their budgetary plans to their own parliaments.
Considering the main causes of the Crisis, these measures might be effective in acoiding avoid next crisis. However, important issues still remain to be solved. In a matured society, like the EU, local, not central, governments play more important roles to supply public goods and services, taking account of the diverse range of people’s demands. However, effective EU-wide rules to strengthen disciplines among member states’ local governments hace not been implemented. Therefore, it still seems premature to conclude that the Crisis is over. A discussian on how to construct multi-level governments, both central and local, can be constructed in the EU is vital to its future.