抄録
An optimal short-range scheduling of multi-reservoir hydro-thermal power systems considering runoff prediction is discussed in this paper. Using Prasad's rainfall-runoff model and the Kalman filter based second order filtering technique, the hour-by-hour runoff characteristic is estimated for a given short-range forecasted rainfall pattern. Unlike the usual hydro scheduling problem in which a single reservoir operating condition is specified at the end of the scheduling period, various end point conditions are examined to deal with the predicted runoff characteristic and avoid possible water spillages from reservoirs.
Dynamic Programming Successive Approximations is successfully applied to get optimum operating strategies for many end point conditions at a time. A rapid convergence characteristic coupled with a simple computation algorithm makes the proposed method one of the atractive approaches for scheduling of complicated multi-reservoir hydro-thermal systems considering runoff prediction.
