PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF RESPONSE SPECTRA: TOWARD ADVANCED NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR JAPAN

抄録

The Earthquake Research Committee (ERC) of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion creates and updates national seismic hazard maps for Japan to help develop effective measures against earthquake hazards. The maps published by the ERC are based on seismic intensity; however, seismic hazard maps based on earthquake response spectra have become widespread in other countries and are used for engineering purposes, such as seismic design. In light of this, the Subcommittee for Evaluation of Strong Ground Motion under the ERC published a provisional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of response spectra to contribute to discussions on the utilization of the PSHA for various needs, including engineering purposes. This paper discusses the provisional PSHA of response spectra, selection of ground motion prediction equations, evaluation conditions, evaluation results, utilization, and its future prospects. The development of the PSHA of response spectra is expected to continue, contributing to seismic design and serving as a basic resource for disaster prevention planning according to probability levels. The results of the provisional PSHA are anticipated to be discussed with various stakeholders, including those involved in disaster prevention, research, and the construction industry, to help develop the PSHA of response spectra.