マクロ経済指標と企業実態から捉えた「労働力不足問題」と今後のあり方

抄録

Japan faces a historic labor shortage that has evolved from a cyclical trend into a structural labor supply constraint driven by a shrinking working-age population. Projections suggest a deficit of 11 million workers by 2040, which would threaten essential social services. This paper quantitatively analyzes this shift through four macroeconomic lenses: labor supply–demand, productivity, capital intensification, and market liquidity.

The findings reveal that while labor demand is at record highs, wage stickiness persists, and real wages continue to stagnate compared to G7 peers. This is compounded by an expanding structural mismatch in the labor market and a decline in labor mobility (Lilien Index). Furthermore, although capital deepening in manufacturing shows promise, non-manufacturing sectors struggle with low investment efficiency. While specific labor-saving technologies like robotic process automation and service robots significantly boost productivity, a massive gap in human capital investment remains. To ensure sustainable growth, Japan needs to transition to a high-productivity model by fostering autonomous reskilling and facilitating labor transition toward high-value-added sectors.