労働供給制約と計画行政

―「令和の転換点」と富山モデルの示唆―

抄録

This paper examines planning administration under labor supply constraints in Japan. The present labor shortage is no longer a cyclical phenomenon but a structural condition in which labor supply itself has become the binding constraint on policy implementation. Official population projections show that between 2020 and 2040 the working-age population will fall by nearly 13 million while the population aged 85 and over will rise by about 3.9 million. At the same time, household statistics show continuing fragmentation of everyday life: total households increased from 37.5 million in 1986 to 54.8 million in 2024, and one-person households now account for 34.6 percent. These dynamics expand demand for essential services while lowering the labor productivity of service delivery. Interpreting this shift as the “Reiwa turning point,” the paper argues that planning administration must move beyond budgeting and facility provision toward cross-sector labor allocation, service-level redesign, and labor-saving investment. The Toyama model illustrates how regional labor supply-demand simulation can support anticipatory governance under labor scarcity.