Development of a Real-Time Crowd Flow Prediction and Visualization Platform for Crowd Management

抄録

Crowd management at large-scale events and specific facilities is a critical issue from the perspectives of safety and service quality improvement. Traditional methods for crowd management often rely on empirical knowledge, which has limitations in quickly grasping the on-site situation and making decisions on the spot. In this study, we developed a real-time crowd flow prediction and visualization platform incorporating an agent-based crowd simulation and an advanced crowd management system called crowd management platform as a service. In a case study focused on the area around the Tokyo Dome, we demonstrated that capturing pedestrian flow allows for accurate predictions of congestion at the nearest train station up to 10 min in advance. Moreover, the time required to predict the situation 20 min ahead for 3,000 agents was 1 min and 35 s, confirming the feasibility of real-time processing. To enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulation results, a sensitivity analysis considering errors in pedestrian flow measurement revealed that simple linear models cannot capture the complexity of crowd dynamics adequately. Notably, the agent-based simulation replicated stop-and-go wave patterns observed in actual measurements under specific crowd conditions, confirming the advantage of using agent-based simulations. Finally, we proposed a method that enables facility managers and security personnel to conduct a more comprehensive evaluation. This method integrates their existing experience with the aggregated display of multiple simulation results, which includes consideration of errors in pedestrian flow measurement through a visualization platform.