NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF FUTURE LAND USE CHANGE FOR FLOOD INUNDATION IN JAKARTA, INDONESIA

抄録

 The risks associated with changes in land use are a common concern, especially in relation to their potential impact on many cities around the world. Jakarta, Indonesia is a typical urbanized Asian city where flooding presents a challenge. In this study, our main objective was to evaluate quantitatively the impact of changes in the use of land upstream of the city by using a flood inundation model to analyze several land-use-change scenarios. We considered four scenarios of future changes in land use in Jakarta based on the SLEUTH model: the worst-case, compact-growth, and controlled-growth-I and -II scenarios. The controlled-growth is a scenario to decrease the growth rate and delay the progress of urbanization compared to the compact-growth scenario.
 According to our analyses, the predicted changes in land use with the land subsidence in the worst-case and controlled-growth-II scenarios would cause flood inundation volumes in 2050 to be 37% and 27% larger than in 2013, respectively. Thus, even under the controlled-growth-II scenario, the modeled changes in land use with the land subsidence would significantly increase flood inundation. Based on these results, we strongly recommend the Jakarta government to regulate land use in the forested upper regions and land subsidence in the lower regions as soon as possible to reduce future flood damage to the city.