抄録
The projection of typhoon activity is one of the most important issues in risk management under climate change. In this study, we aim to project near-future typhoon activity, and to assess the expected damage cost associated with typhoon in the near-future climate change. Firstly, we have developed a Stochastic Typhoon Model combined with future typhoon characteristics based on General Circulation Model in order to estimate near-future typhoon activity. Further, to evaluate our model's reliability, the outputs of our model have been validated against the observed tracks and central pressure of typhoon in the Western North Pacific. The projected near-future typhoon activity shows the tracks of typhoon shift to the northeast and the typhoon of lower central pressure is increased in the near-future. These changes cause a decrease on annual damage cost in countries around the Asia-Pacific region except for Vietnam. The methodological experience in this study will be helpful to build risk management.
