抄録
Increasing surface temperature has resulted in significant changes in rainfall patterns. This paper presents the projection of the future extreme rainfall based on a statistical downscaling model for a global super-high-resolution climate model output. The downscaling model is formulated with the consideration of physical processes that govern heavy rainfall patterns. A case study is examined for nine observation sites in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin in Central Vietnam. Results show that by the end of this century (2075-2099) heavy rainfall is projected to increase for the entire basin. Especially in elevated locations, it is very likely that extreme rainfall will increase about 30% relative to the present-day climate (1979-2003); the future rainfall with 10-yr return period will greatly exceed those with 25-yr under the present-day climate conditions. Meanwhile, a slight increase of extreme rainfall is projected for low-lying places along the coastline.
