抄録
This research investigates the effects of climate change on the thermal structure and water quality in Urayama Reservoir. We used downscaled meteorological and hydrological data of present period (year 2000) from JRA25 and future period (2060s) by pseudo global warming models using CCCMA47 and ECHAM5. Also we applied a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic and ecological model of ELCOM-CAEDYM to the reservoir. Then we compared simulated results for present period with those for future period. The average surface water temperature in future period was predicted to increase by 1.2ºC from CCCMA47 and 0.4ºC from ECHAM5 compared with present period. In contrast, phytoplankton biomasses were predicted to decrease by both CCCMA47 and ECHAM5 due to water temperature increase or flood events. ECHAM5 predicted significant increase of SS concentrations because of the large amount of inflow SS by bigger floods than present period.
