抄録
In Mekong river basin, productivity of rice is unstable because more than 70 % of paddy fields were classified as rain-fed paddy. In addition, future global climate change and land use change will make negative impact on rice production in this region. In order to analyze the stability of rice production quantitatively, it is important to consider the rice farming management such as strategy of rain-fed rice yield stabilization. In this study, rice production model was developed combined with distributed type water circulation model. Developed rice production model was applied to Mekong river basin, and verified with the statistic data of Northeast Thailand from 1986 to 1995. As a result, rice planted area, yield, production was good agreement with statistic data, especially errors in rice yield was improved by considering the strategy of rain-fed rice yield stabilization.
