抄録
This study aims to assess the effects of climate change on flood discharge and inundation in the Solo river basin in Indonesia based on Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation model (RRI model). First, a flood event occurred from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008 was simulated to estimate the magnitude of the event in terms of the peak discharge and inundation volume. The flood event affected more than hundred thousand people and killed more than hundred people. This was considered as a representative severe flood event in this basin to compare other simulated floods with GCM output from MRI-AGCM3.2S. The calculated result shows that 1) peak discharge and maximum inundation volume increases in the future period (2075-2099), in particular low frequent flood events longer than 10 years return period, 2) inundation area expands around the mainstream of the Solo river in the future. The results help to understand the hydrological characteristics and flood risk management under climate change.
