抄録
In most developing countries, a water use shift to urban centers and the tourism industry, is often implemented to increase total economic welfare. The shift in water use and lack of water availability due to spatial and seasonal variabilities often create social tensions and become a source of conflicts among sectors. This study focuses on Bali (Indonesia) as one of the world's most well-known tourist destinations, where conflicts among sectors have recently increased. In order to understand Balinese spatial and seasonal variabilities in water use, this study estimated water use on this island from 1994 to 2013. The results suggest that even though there is an economic shift from agriculture to tourism, there is still an increasing trend in agricultural water use from 2003. This study also identifies Badung Regency and Denpasar City as regions prone to conflict. This is because, in addition to high water use and low water availability, the regions have many competing different sectors. Thus, better accuracy in predicting hydrological variation is required.
