抄録
Launched in 2012 by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research, the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to establish a long-term, community-driven process of cross-sectoral climate-impact model. The three scenarios provided by ISI-MIP2b were implemented into the H08 model, a global scale water resource model.
The different general circulation models (GCMs) had significant effects on the outputs of the H08 model such as ET and river discharge. The effects of the RCPs were consistent across the different GCMs and the simulations using RCP6.0 always produced clear increasing (surface runoff, subsurface runoff, discharge, ET) or decreasing (water recharge) trends as well as extrema values. Future research directions include: (1) a region based data analysis to better characterize the effect of different combinations of GCMs and RCPs, (2) a Bayesian change-point analysis to compare change-point models, and (3) the investigation of the targeted 1.5 °C increase on global water resources.
