説得による態度変容プロセスの認知モデリング：中村・三浦（2019）の事前登録済み二次分析

抄録

Nakamura and Miura (2019) conducted an experiment to examine the attitude change process in a situation where someone is persuaded in multiple directions from different sources, and showed the applicability of the heuristic-systematic model (HSM), a model of the attitude change process in unidirectional situations. In this study, we elucidated that the data analysis method taken by Nakamura and Miura (2019) has two limitations: (1) its conclusions depend on the untestable assumptions of the analyst, and (2) it is not purposive to the objective of testing the applicability of the model. To overcome these problems, we proposed a cognitive model appropriate to the experiment. Moreover, we analyzed Nakamura and Miura’s data (2019) using that model. As a result of the posterior predictive check and a model comparison by the Bayes factor, it was shown that the HSM is applicable in such a situation, while also obtaining some evidence against the HSM. Furthermore, the parameter estimates indicated that the quality of some messages and manipulations was not as intended by the experimenter.