冬期気温データを用いたクモヘリカメムシ発生地域予測手法の広域適用性の検証

抄録

The rice bug, Leptocorisa chinensis (Hemiptera: Alydidae),is distributed from south-western to eastern Japan. Recently, its northern limit has been expanding to Iwate Prefecture, Tohoku district. The distribution areas of this species may be closely associated with the temperature during the peak of winter. Two types of estimation method for describing the distribution areas based on the winter temperature were reported in Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. Those two methods were applied in estimating the potential distribution areas in eastern Japan other than Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. The prediction accuracy was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Though the temperature threshold for predicting the existence of L. chinensis requires a more detailed study, these two estimation methods may be used for predicting the existence of this species in eastern Japan.