電力エネルギーシナリオ分析

抄録

The objective of this article is to describe the latest trends and requirements for the scenario analysis of electric energy. A power system has been evolving so as to realize sustainable demand and supply of total energy where economy, security of supply, reduction of environmental impacts are targeted. On the demand side, in addition to the essential energy efficiency, electrification is the major resource for energy efficiency. EV and heat pump water heater, electrification of mobility and heat supply, offer the possibility of demand shift（demand activation）. On the supply side, the output of some of the major renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind generation have a nature of variability and uncertainty due to fluctuation of sunshine and wind velocity. The variable and uncertain features of renewable generation gradually occur challenges of an operation of a power system according as their penetration increases, and additional balancing capability（flexibility）of a power system are required as the penetration of the variable renewable generations. In a power system there are several possibilities of flexibility of traditional generation fleet, modification of renewable generation, demand activation, energy storage, and interconnections between power systems. In a power system the enhanced operation methodologies is being established through the integration of flexibilities and renewable energy generation forecast including operation of wholesale and retail power market. The scenario analysis of electric energy is supposed to include the features and requirements of a power system including a functionality to be a sophisticated communication tool between stakeholders to analyze problems with complication and uncertainty.