産業連関表を用いた中国における経済発展と二酸化炭素排出に関する研究

抄録

Background, Aim and Scope. In 2007, China became the world’s most CO₂ emitting country. China’s CO₂ emission keeps increasing along with its high GDP growth rate reaching the average of nearly 10% over the past decade. From the perspective of global warming prevention, this study uses input-output tables to reveal the structural change in Chinese economy and the mechanism of CO₂ emission by industry sectors.
Methods. This study uses input-output tables of the National Bureau of Statistics of China to create linked input-output tables for 1997, 2002, and 2007. The linked input-output tables are converted into tables for environmental analysis by taking account of the energy consumption among industry groups. The converted tables are used for an estimation of CO₂ inducement due to changes in the net final demand (domestic final demand and net exports) for each of the 3 different time points. Further, this study analyses the effect of trade on CO₂ inducement by treating imports as the competitive type and assuming that imports and exports are produced under the same manufacturing technology available in China.
Results and Discussion. Between 1997 and 2002, the CO₂ emission increase was small, but the emission increased by 95% between 2002 and 2007. On the other hand, the CO₂ inducement intensity decreased in most of industries due to the advancement of energy-efficient technology. The fixed capital formation accounts for a large part of the increase in induced CO₂ from the domestic final demand. The final consumption is distinguished between rural area and urban area, and the study finds that the increase in induced CO₂ is small for the rural consumption and large for the urban consumption. Secondary industry grew rapidly, and there is a rapid increase of induced CO₂ in the industry. As trade grows, CO₂ emission increases in China and in its trading partners. The induced CO₂ from exports is increased and it accounts for nearly 33% of the induced CO₂ from the final demand (domestic final demand and exports) in 2007. The induced CO₂ from imports notably exceeds that from exports for mining industry and chemical industry, indicating that CO₂ is induced more in import-producing countries than in China. It indicates that China has a tendency to import parts, materials, and minerals produced in these industries and assembles them to produce exports.
Conclusions. Having abundant coal reserve, China heavily relies on its energy source to coal, which has a high CO₂ emission factor. The issue of global warming is accelerating new innovations in the direction of using clean energy, and China’s future tasks are reducing its coal dependency and increasing the energy efficiency for sustainable development.