抄録
The destruction of the tropical forest is serious problem in global environment. This paper shows the forecasting model to analyze the quantitative relationship between wood use and forest logging using statistical data in nations. In this model, 3 types of consumption are assumed which are pulpwood, fuelwood and timber. They are supplied from two types of land which are closed forest and reforest area. In this model, alternatives are proposed considering wood demand, self-supply or export and import of wood, and dependent rate of wood supply from the closed forest. This model forecasts decrease of closed forest is in 11 nations and regions. 15 scenarios were prepared for policy analysis considering the recycle of paper, destruction of the closed forest and the timber demand. The reforest for timber supply with reduction of wood consumption is effective to conserve the tropical forest. Nevertheless, the simulation shows 5-9% of tropical forest is lost during 35 years. The sustainable management of reforesting and trading of wood should rapidly start to reserve the natural closed forest in tropical area.
