平成30年7月豪雨災害による倉敷市真備町での死者の発生場所における浸水状況の分析と人的被害推定手法の改善方策の検討

抄録

Risk assessment for flood-induced human damage is essential for implementing efficient damage reduction measures. In this study, we analyzed the human damage situation caused by 2018 floods in Mabicho district, Okayama, Japan. The relationship between fatality rate and inundation situation, which are represented by inundation depth and water rise speed, was analyzed. The result shows that both inundation depth and water rise speed somewhat correlated with fatality rate and there were the thresholds above which fatality rate significantly increased. Moreover, the applicability of LifeSim Model and Mortality Functions Method, widely used methods for flood-induced human damage estimation, was examined. Both models significantly overestimated fatalities and couldn’t accurately estimate the distribution of fatalities especially in the areas with rapid water rise. Meanwhile, the issues and improvement measures of these methods were proposed in reference to the result obtained in the present analysis.