津波による経済被害と地域経済の回復力: 愛知県54市町村を対象として

抄録

　　In Japan, large-scale earthquakes have occurred in various places, including the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 and the Kumamoto Earthquake in April 2016.　Important ports exist in Aichi Prefecture, such as Nagoya Port and Mikawa Port, where many automobile-related industries are located.　Serious direct damage have occurred at these ports from earthquakes and the tsunamis.　However, the indirect damages and the recovery process of the regional economies in the wake of the earthquakes and the tsunamis have not been adequately considered.

　　In this study, we constructed a sequential dynamic bottleneck model by combining forward linkage and production technology for 54 municipalities in Aichi Prefecture.　By sequentially applying the hypothetical extraction method on the basis of the initial direct damage for each industry affected by the tsunami, as well as recovery scenarios for the Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes, we estimated the regional economies’ recovery process, where goods and services are traded among sectors and regions.　In addition, to assess additional supply conditions such as supplementary goods from outside the target areas, we used non-competitive, import-type, inter-regional input-output tables that disaggregate imports.

　　The recovery process of the municipality economy in Aichi Prefecture based on the stoppage / restoration scenario of the production activity in the coastal area of Mikawa Port and the tsunami flooded areas was simulated.　In the coastal area of Mikawa Port, with the basic scenario and the optimistic scenario, all municipalities recovered to the normal production levels.　Even in the tsunami flooded areas under the same scenarios, the production recovered to the normal level.

JEL Classifications: Q54, R15