2007 Volume 10 Issue 3 Pages 002-010
This paper suggests a way for forecasting tourists. The forecasting model has two stages of estimation. First stage is the "International Trip Generation". We explain this by using a logistic curve. Second, we proceed to find out the travel destination by using the aggregate logit model. Results for the forecast of tourists coming to Japan lead to two main conclusions. The number of tourists from every Asian country shows the growing tendency until 2030. Moreover, the rate of tourist visiting Japan will decrease gradually (compare to other regions such as North America and Europe where the rate is steadily increasing).
