Developing Zonal House Vacancy Estimation Models with a Resolution of 𝟐𝟓𝟎 𝒎

A Case Study of Residential Zones in Kyoto City

抄録

As Japan is expected to enter a long period of population decline, the house vacancy ratio in Japanese cities is expected to increase. Therefore, efficient house vacancy surveying methods are required to accelerate research on housing vacancies in Japan. In this study, a standardized vacancy surveying method is developed. This method is fast and independent of the subjectivity of the surveying personnel, allowing the surveying process to be easily streamlined. This surveying method–which provides a vacancy ratio at a resolution of 250 𝑚–was applied to selected parts of Kyoto city. The results of the survey were analyzed to examine the zonal variation of the residential characteristics of the study areas. The insights obtained from that analysis were then used to develop dwelling units estimation models for two of the residential zoning classes in Japan. The newly developed zonal models provide an accurate estimation of the volume of dwelling units and consequently vacant dwelling units in target areas. Hence, they provide researchers and municipalities with a tool to identify areas with a high concentration of vacant dwelling units in the exclusively low-rise and mid/high-rise residential zoning classes in Japan.