Two empirical formulas were derived which jointly make it possible to predict size of GIC (geomagnetically induced current) in a power line as a function of
Kp, a three-hourly planetary magnetic activity index. GIC size is represented by an hourly-range value, i. e., the difference between the maximum and minimum GIC values for a time interval of an hour. The formulas are based on the data obtained from a 500kV power line of B. C. Hydro which extends 400km long in an east-west direction at a geomagnetic latitude of about 60°. One of the two formulas relates mean GIC size with
Kp; it was found that, on the average, GIC size changes exponentially with
Kp. The other formula describes the scatter of individual values of GIC size about the average trend described by the first formula. The scatter was found to follow a lognormal distribution. The parameters in these formulas were determined from two groups of data: one includes the entire available data and the other covers data for 1
+≤
Kp≤5
0. The data outside this
Kp range were scanty. The probability that GIC size exceeds 100 Amperes at
Kp=9 is estimated to be 3% and 12%, respectively, based on the two data groups.
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