In this study, methods for establishing Fragility Curves (FC) for quay walls (gravity type and sheet pile type) to estimate damages of the facilities immediately after earthquakes using a residual horizontal displacement threshold of 1.0 m was proposed. By the method, the FC was established based on Bayesian inference using the accumulated seismic damage facilities’ data and power spectrum intensity (PSI).
To simultaneously consider common factors and different factors specific to each type of structure, we formulated the model of the FC based on the generalized linear model and the hierarchical Bayesian model. The model parameters were estimated by the MCMC methods. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the estimated FC was quantified by the Bayesian confidence interval.
By using the proposed method, it becomes possible to incorporate diverse information of the structureside related to resistance of the structure, which will be accumulated in the future.
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