Bulletin of the Computational Statistics of Japan
Online ISSN : 2189-9789
Print ISSN : 0914-8930
ISSN-L : 0914-8930
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Displaying 1-13 of 13 articles from this issue
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original papers
  • DEMAND FORECASTING OF EXPENDABLE PARTS CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF UNITS IN OPERATION
    Ko Abe, Satoshi Ikada, Takenori Sakumura, Toshinari Kamakura
    2023 Volume 36 Issue 2 Pages 83-97
    Published: 2023
    Released on J-STAGE: January 11, 2024
    DOIhttps://doi.org/10.20551/jscswabun.36.2_83
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
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      Recurrent events in the system are of interest in many applications, an example of which is the replacement of manufactured items. A nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) has been proposed for the analysis of recurrent events. In this study, we propose a new intensity function of NHPP based on ordinary differential equations. From the discretization of the equations, a state-space models is also derived and can simultaneously estimate the number of active units operating in the main body, which cannot be observed. Simulation studies are used to verify the performance of the estimator of the proposed models based on the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, a case study on actual demand data of parts corresponding to a product reveals the effective prediction of the proposed models with its lower root mean square error than those of previous Bass or ARIMA models. The proposed models assumes that repeated events occur as long as the running lifetime of the body. From this assumption, our proposed methods can present a reasonable estimation and prediction.
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  • BAYESIAN CREDIBLE POSSESSION BASED PLAYER PERFORMANCE EVALUATION IN BASKETBALL
    Asuka Ishida, Masayoshi Takayanagi, Ibuki AJ Hoshina, Koji Iwayama
    2023 Volume 36 Issue 2 Pages 99-126
    Published: 2023
    Released on J-STAGE: January 11, 2024
    DOIhttps://doi.org/10.20551/jscswabun.36.2_99
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
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      The current metrics used for player evaluation in basketball have the problem of making it difficult to obtain information on the reliability of the evaluation values and to evaluate the synergy effects among players. In this study, we propose a model that considers the abilities of players playing simultaneously, such as teammates and opponents, as well as synergy effects with teammates. We derive the posterior distributions of players' offensive and defensive abilities, as well as those Bayesian credible intervals in closed form, after developing a Bayesian model. Additionally, we calculated Bayesian credible intervals for the indices derived from affine transformations of those capabilities and evaluated the uncertainty in estimating capability values. The computational cost of the proposed method is lower than Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Using real data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), the proposed method is validated against the existing method, and it is confirmed that the proposed method provides more valid player evaluations than the existing method.
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Reviews
  • PROPOSAL OF RATING METHODS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO HANDBALL GAME
    Rikuya Kawamura, Yoshiro Yamamoto
    2023 Volume 36 Issue 2 Pages 127-144
    Published: 2023
    Released on J-STAGE: January 11, 2024
    DOIhttps://doi.org/10.20551/jscswabun.36.2_127
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
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      Updates on the rankings of national handball teams have been lacking since 2010 and are not used for qualification groupings in international tournaments, leading to issues such as lackluster matches. Furthermore, rankings prior to 2010 lack statistical justification. This study proposes a rating method for men's handball that calculates team strength on the basis of match results. Using ranking based on this rating, the study expects to prevent lackluster games and increase interest in handball through media coverage of rankings. As applications of the ranking, ratings are calculated based on the results of the World Championship, and the number of participating countries from each continent in the Olympic tournament is discussed. Additionally, the study highlights lackluster matches as a result of flawed tournament formats in the Youth Asia Championships using the ratings.
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