Objective: This prospective cohort study aimed to evaluate whether end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) levels measured during bag-valve-mask (BVM) ventilation can predict sustained return of spontaneous circulation (sustained ROSC) in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).
Methods: From January 2018 to December 2020, OHCA patients treated by emergency medical services in Kishiwada City, Osaka Prefecture, were prospectively enrolled. Initial EtCO2 levels measured during BVM ventilation were recorded in real-time.We performed logistic regression analysis to determine whether initial EtCO2 was an independent predictor of sustained ROSC. To assess the added value of EtCO2, we developed two prediction models: one including EtCO2 and one excluding it. These models were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration and stability were evaluated via likelihood ratio testing and visual inspection of calibration plots.
Results: A total of 276 patients were included, of whom 72 achieved sustained ROSC. Logistic regression analysis showed that higher initial EtCO2 levels were independently associated with sustained ROSC (odds ratio [OR] 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-2.28; p = 0.0276). While the model including EtCO2 had a slightly higher AUC than the model excluding EtCO2 (OR 0.77; 95% CI: 0.71-0.83 vs. OR 0.75; 95% CI: 0.69-0.81), the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.0955). However, the likelihood ratio test indicated a significantly better model fit when EtCO2 was included (p = 0.02), and the calibration plot showed improved alignment between predicted and observed outcomes in the EtCO2-including model.
Conclusion: Initial EtCO2 measured during BVM ventilation was an independent predictor of sustained ROSC in OHCA patients. Although the inclusion of EtCO2 did not significantly improve model discrimination, it enhanced calibration, suggesting its potential to improve the reliability of clinical decision-making during resuscitation efforts.
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