A sustainable supply of mineral resources is currently a world-wide problem which needs to be solved by modern civilization. With the enormous growth of industrialization, the annual output of metals increased exponentially after 1950. Trends and forcasts in the supply-demand of copper, one of the leading base metals, are examined based on a few components of the exponential growth. The results are smmarized as follows:
1) The annual output of copper has increased dramatically over the past 160 years. Low positive and stable long-term growth rates occurred before 1950, whereas growth rates increased quickly and radically after 1950, especially during the 1950-1973 period. A substantial decline in the growth of copper consumption took place in 1975 and lasted until the early 1980s. However, copper consumption has increased again recently.
2) The relationships among GDP growth, copper consumption per constant dollar of GDP and copper consumption per capita were illustrated based on statistical data on copper production in 35 countries over the 1970-1990 period. In general, growth rates of copper consumption per constant dollar of GDP were very high in most developing countries ranging to less than 1, 000 1989, US per capita GDP, while in developed countries, the ranges were more than 5, 000 1989 US per capita GDP, rates of copper consumption per 1989 US $ of GDP fell as per capita GDP increases. However, per capita copper consumption showed a tendency to increase in proportion to the increases in per capita GDP.
3) Copper consumption is also increased by an increasing population. The world's population continues to grow rapidly, driven by very high growth rates in developing countries, although growth rates have dropped sharply in developed countries. However, the per capita consumption of copper in developed countries is remarkably large, whereas that in developing countries is low. The amount by which copper consumption increases is low compared with the growth rate of the world's population.
4) Another component of the exponential growth is the rising standard of living. The per capita consumption of copper in industrialized countries or newly industrializing economies is high, while that in developing countries is low. If the living standard of India or China (with over one-third of the world's population) equated that of Japan or the USA, a huge amount of copper would be needed to support that society. The growth rate of copper consumption would be affected most by the index of the rising standard of living.
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