Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) has implemented a new policy as announced on November 24th, 2017. It is my great pleasure to announce that SOLA is a fully Open Access journal under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/license/by/4.0). This license permits readers of our papers to adapt, distribute, and reproduce the articles of SOLA in any medium, even commercially, provided that the users give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the original source, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made, without obtaining permission from the Meteorological Society of Japan (MSJ). This rule applies to the papers published in 2018 and later.
In addition, we ask the contributors to pay Article Processing Charge (APC) in order to cover the publication cost and online procedures under the Open Access policy. The APC is 80,000 Japanese Yen for members of the MSJ or 100,000 Japanese Yen for non-members of the MSJ (both with consumption tax added if applicable). Although the MSJ members enjoy the discount rate, SOLA welcomes submission from every region in the world.
From 2018, SOLA will start a new era to be one of the major platforms in the international community to disseminate scientific findings and knowledge in meteorology, atmospheric sciences, and the related fields.

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The Editorial Committee of Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) gives The SOLA Award to outstanding paper(s) published each year. I am pleased to announce that The SOLA Award in 2017 is going to be presented to the paper by Dr. Hiroaki Miura, entitled with “Coupling the hexagonal B1-grid and B2-grid to avoid computational mode problem of the hexagonal ZM-grid” (Miura 2017), and to the paper by Dr. Daisuke Goto et al., entitled with “Vertical profiles and temporal variations of greenhouse gases in the stratosphere over Syowa Station, Antarctica” (Goto et al. 2017).

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To investigate the influence of the distribution of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk on the behavior of a severe snowstorm, which occurred in Hokkaido, Japan, on 2 March 2013 and which was associated with an explosive cyclone, three WRF simulations with realistic, reduced, and enhanced sea ice-cover were carried out. A comparison among these experiments reveals that the extent of the sea ice influenced low-level temperatures and winds to the rear of the cyclone center during the development of the explosive cyclone over the Sea of Okhotsk. Sea ice insulates the ocean from heat exchange with the atmosphere. As a result, when the Okhotsk sea ice extent reaches Hokkaido Island, cold air masses from the north traverse the island without first being heated by the ocean. The consequent temperature reduction produces a low-level higher pressure region to the rear of the cyclone center. As a result, a large geopotential gradient is generated just to the rear of the cyclone center, and low-level winds are intensified within this region. Therefore, the Okhotsk sea ice extent reaching Hokkaido Island plays a significant role in lowering temperatures and intensifying winds in the island.

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As an additional product of the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) project, a new global atmospheric reanalysis product, named JRA-55CHS, is under construction. It utilizes quarter-degree sea-surface temperature (SST) as lower-boundary condition with the same data assimilation system as the JRA-55 Conventional (JRA-55C), into which no satellite data is assimilated. The SST data can resolve steep SST gradients along the western boundary currents (WBCs), which are not necessarily well represented in many of the other atmospheric reanalysis products, including the JRA-55C. The present paper briefly documents basic performance of the JRA-55CHS, through comparing it with the JRA-55C and satellite observations in focusing on the major WBC regions. In the JRA-55CHS, mesoscale atmospheric structures along the WBCs are well reproduced in their climatological-mean fields as captured in the satellite observations. Their interannual- to decadal-scale variations associated with SST variations are also reasonably reproduced. The corresponding atmospheric features are less obvious in the JRA-55C owing to smoother SST prescribed. Furthermore, comparison between the two reanalysis products reveals that the influence of frontal-scale SST distributions can reach into the middle and upper troposphere, especially in summer. The JRA-55CHS will be useful for deepening our understanding of the nature of midlatitude frontal-scale air-sea interactions.

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Three years of Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and five meteorological parameters from the NCEP FNL reanalysis data, are used to generate an Artificial Neutral Network (ANN)-based nonlinear model for estimating the surface PM_2.5 concentrations over Beijing. To increase the number of both the training and forecasting samples for better training results and to guarantee the continuity and representativeness of the samples, the MODIS AODs are gridded with seasonally dependent windows sizes. The past PM_2.5 concentrations simulated by the ANN model are contrasted with the real observations for six years from 2008 to 2013. The results indicate that the ANN model can effectively simulate the surface PM_2.5 concentrations, and the mean bias, correlation coefficient, and the root mean square error between these data are −16.10, 0.73, and 55.43, respectively. This study also demonstrates that the Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) is the most important meteorological factor in constructing the ANN model. Compared to the linear regression model using only AOD, the correlation coefficient can be increased from 0.68 to 0.76 with the ANN model by using both the AOD and the PBLH data.

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Land surface heterogeneity exists at all spatial scales and has many important effects on energy, momentum and mass exchange between land and atmosphere. Land surface models (LSMs) partially consider surface subgrid heterogeneity (SSGH) effects through surface tiling methods. In this study, a series of numerical experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) LSM's surface tiling scheme by combining atmospheric forcing data and land-cover fraction data at different horizontal resolutions. Our tests quantitatively show that the surface tiling scheme can have a significant impact on model simulated fields, but cannot reflect SSGH effects adequately. Soil is considered to be homogeneous across a single grid cell in the current surface tiling scheme, which results in soil-moisture dependent anomalies in simulated carbon flux. Our numerical results indicate that the current JULES LSM needs additional updates to consider subgrid scale heterogeneities of subsurface processes and soil-vegetation interactions.

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Using the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) outputs, subtropical marine low stratiform cloud (LSC) amounts simulated in 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models are robustly evaluated in terms of the relationship with the estimated inversion strength (EIS). The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) low-plus-middle cloud amounts with optical thickness > 3.6, corrected with the random-overlap assumption, are defined as the LSC amount. Although EISs are well-simulated in all the models, more than half of the models show weaker responses of the LSC amount to EIS (2%-3% K⁻¹) than the observations (∼4.5% K⁻¹), and some models even show negative responses. The Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) cloud amounts and layered EISs reveal that most models simulate inversion levels lower than observed, and that the vertical structure of LSCs has a key role for improvement in the modeled relationships.

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A large-scale dust event occurred in East Asia during early May 2017, and transported dust was measured all over Japan. We performed an analysis of the entire dust event using multiple sources: a local ceilometer measurement, measurements from an optical particle counter in the Gobi Desert (Dalanzadgad, Mongolia), a study of Dust RGB imagery obtained from Himawari-8, lidar measurements from Japan, and meteorological data. Our results show that three extratropical low pressure systems occurred consecutively in Mongolia and generated dust storms in the Gobi Desert. The dust generated by the third low pressure system was transported to Japan by a cold front and two pressure troughs, which were associated with the low pressure system. Remarkably, the Dust RGB imagery shows both the occurrence and the transportation of the dust, and was able to detect two dust outbreaks in the Horqin Sandy Land of Northern China and their transportation to eastern Japan; this shows that the Horqin Sandy Land was one of the source regions of this dust event.

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Extremely small snow cover in the winter of 2015/16 and interannual variations of snow cover over the Japanese Northern Alps are simulated by a regional climate model with 2 km grid spacing based on the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Our simulation well reproduces the daily variation of snow depth along the Tateyama-Kurobe Alpine Route, located at the Japanese Northern Alps, as compared to snow depths observed by time-lapse cameras in 2014/15. Our simulations indicate that the maximum snow depth in 2015/16 was the lowest of 16 years at high elevations, especially in the spring. In March 2016, weak cold air outbreaks and inactive storm-tracks cause little precipitation around central Japan, resulting in greatly reduced annual accumulated snowfall than usual at high elevations. Warmer April conditions also contribute to accelerated snow melting, resulting in the disappearance of snow at high elevations one-month earlier than usual. Analysis of large-scale circulations related to past large El Niño years shows a warmer April is a typical response in El Niño events, while weak cold air outbreaks and inactive storm-tracks are contributed by the extratropical internal variation rather than lingering El Niño effects in tropics.

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To evaluate the influence of spatial resolution in numerical simulations on the duration of consecutive dry days (CDDs) and near-surface temperature over the central mountains in Japan, a regional climate model was used to conduct two experiments with horizontal resolutions of 5 and 20 km. Compared with observations, the spatial and temporal features of the CDDs were simulated well in the 5 km experiment, whereas in the 20 km simulation they were overestimated over the mountains and underestimated in the surrounding regions. The accuracy in the simulated CDDs affected the near-surface temperature in the model. In years with a difference of more than five days in the CDDs between the 5 and 20 km experiments, near-surface temperatures over the mountains were 0.2-0.3 K lower in the 5 km simulation compared with the 20 km simulation. This was due to the lower number of CDDs in 5 km simulation causing active cloud convection and reduced net radiation at the ground, resulting from a large decrease in the solar radiation at the ground. In addition, a land surface wetness controls a spatial heterogeneity of temperature difference between two experiments.

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The connection between the predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has recently attracted widespread attention. Of particular importance is the effect of El Niño and La Niña on EASM predictability. In this paper, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) method is used to analyze reanalysis data, and the results show that the EASM potential predictability intensity is much stronger under El Niño forcing than that under La Niña forcing. Meanwhile, the asymmetric response of EASM predictability remains within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) simulations. The EASM predictability is quantitatively determined using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method. The EASM predictability limit under El Niño forcing is longer than that for La Niña forcing. Two monsoon indices are used to measure the EASM, the predictability limits of which perform differently because of their particular definitions. However, the asymmetric response of EASM predictability to El Niño and La Niña can be verified using observational data and model experiments.

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Recent studies indicate that the view of a general weakening of the monsoon circulation in a warmer climate cannot be simply applied in the Asian monsoon regions. To understand the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming, idealized multi-model experiments are analyzed. In the coupled model response to increased CO₂, monsoon westerlies in the lower troposphere are shifted poleward and slightly strengthened over land including South Asia and East Asia, while the tropical easterly jet in the upper troposphere are broadly weakened. The different circulation responses between the lower and upper troposphere is associated with vertically opposite changes in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Eurasian continent and the tropical Indian Ocean, with a strengthening (weakening) in the lower (upper) troposphere. Atmospheric model experiments to separate the effects of CO₂ radiative forcing and sea surface temperature warming reveal that the strengthened MTG in the lower troposphere is explained by the CO₂ forcing. On a global perspective, CO₂-induced enhancement of the land–sea thermal contrast and resultant circulation changes are the most influential in the South Asian monsoon. This study emphasizes an important role of the land warming on the Asian monsoon response to global warming.

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On 26 July 2012, localized rainfall from four isolated convective cells was observed by the Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) located in Osaka, Japan. The PAWR can observe fine three-dimensional features of precipitation every 30 seconds. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of localized isolated convective cells using the PAWR data.

The first echoes appeared at around 5 km altitude, and light rain (25 dBZ) near the ground started in 3 to 5 minutes after the first echo. Heavy rain (50 dBZ) started in 9 to 15 minutes after the first echo. The lifespan of four convective cells was from 40 to 70 minutes.

The reflectivity centroid over 25 dBZ (C25) of the first echo in developing stage descended first and then ascended within the several minutes. The behavior of the first echo motion looked complicated and it is difficult to be explained by the traditional conceptual model. In dissipation stage, the descending C25 was stopped by an alternation of precipitation core.

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We use two groups of 100-member ensemble AGCM experiment to investigate the robustness and probabilistic nature of the Warm Arctic/Cold Eurasian (WACE) pattern with or without strong warming SST trend and sea-ice reduction. Model ensembles successfully simulate a distribution of trend coefficients close to that of observation. Results show that the recent trend in WACE pattern is driven by the warming of the Arctic SST, but the pattern itself is not amplified between the warming and non-warming experiment and cannot explain the current cooling trend of the mid-latitudes. We argue that the difference in sea-ice condition regulates the more extreme cases of the pattern thereby contributing to the positive trend in WACE pattern similar to that of observation.

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Based on 55-yr output data from the historical runs of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) models and a NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis, we evaluate the capability of those models to simulate the interannual variability of the winter North Atlantic storm track (WNAST). It is found that the multi-model ensemble (MME) is better than any single models in reflecting the spatial distribution of WNAST interannual variability and has the smallest root mean square error (RMSE). The strengths of the interannual variations in half of the models are universally weaker than in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, the simulated interannual variability vary largely among these models in (55°N–65°N, 35°W–0°). MPI-ESM-LR, FGOALS-s2 and MRI-CGCM3 have relatively better abilities than other models to reflect the interannual variability of WNAST strength, longitude and latitude indices respectively. However, the interannual variability of WNAST longitude and latitude indices (strength index) are (is) overestimated (underestimated) in MME.

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The future change of heavy rainfall (meso-β scale) in the Baiu season, the atmospheric patterns (over meso-α scale) of sea level pressure and surface vapor flux, and the connection between them were investigated by analyzing multiple datasets of a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM05) for better simulating heavy rainfall, a coarser-resolution global atmospheric climate model (AGCM20) embedding the NHRCM05, and a huge database for Policy Decision-Making for Future climate change (d4PDF) with a coarser-resolution. As a result, northern Japan and Japan-sea-side areas have a statistically significant increase of heavy rainfall that is caused by an increase in the atmospheric patterns with westward-protruding Pacific high and northward-invading vapor flux along the periphery of the high. In the Pacific side in eastern Japan, the typical atmospheric pattern prone to heavy rainfall will change in the future as it will decrease the occurrence frequency of the atmospheric pattern that presently caused heavy rainfall with cyclones located at south of Japan. Besides, the atmospheric pattern with westward-protruding pacific high, that presently caused heavy rainfall mainly in western Japan, will expand the area of heavy rainfall eastward in the future due to an eastward-invading vapor flux.

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The kinetic energy associated with Chang-ma periods was investigated using rawinsonde data from Korea during 2013-2015. Changes in kinetic energy (which is defined in terms of storm relative helicity, SRH) were more pronounced than changes in thermal energy (which is defined in terms of convective available potential energy, CAPE) during precipitation. The median value of SRH increased by 14, 125, and 185 m² s⁻² in no-rain, weak-rain (< 5 mm 3 hr⁻¹), and strong-rain (≥ 5 mm 3 hr⁻¹) time periods, respectively. However, the values of CAPE remained below 100 J kg⁻¹ regardless of the rainfall intensity. Moreover, the correlation coefficients (R) between SRH and precipitation amount about 0.4 with 99% confidence level. In addition, we used two vectors constituting the SRH (storm motion vector and horizontal wind vector) to determine the reason for the SRH differences. The change in the y-components of the horizontal wind vector at low levels (850-750 hPa) was determined to be closely related to SRH. The increase in SRH during the precipitation periods was therefore determined to be due to the low-level southerly wind. Based on these results, we conclude that SRH can be used not only to predict mesoscale storms but also to forecast precipitation in the early summer monsoon season in Korea.

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The accuracy of chemical tracer simulations by atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-based chemistry-transport models (ACTMs) depends on the quality of AGCM transport properties, even when the meteorology is nudged towards the reanalysis fields. Here we show that significant improvements in tracer distribution are achieved when hybrid vertical coordinate is implemented in MIROC4.0 AGCM, compared to its predecessors AGCM5.7b based on sigma coordinate. Only explicitly resolved gravity waves are propagated into the stratosphere in MIROC4-ACTM. The MIROC4-ACTM produces “age-of-air” up to about 5 years in the tropical upper stratosphere (∼1 hPa) and about 6 years in the polar middle stratosphere (∼10 hPa), in agreement with observational estimates. Comparisons of MIROC4-ACTM simulation with observed sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) in the troposphere also show remarkable improvements over the AGCM57b-ACTM simulation. MIROC4-ACTM is characterized by weaker convective mass flux and thus older age of air in the tropical troposphere, relative to AGCM57b-ACTM. The role of convective transport on tracer simulations is depicted using vertical cross-sections of ²²²Rn (radon) distributions. Both the ACTM versions show similar results when compared with ²²²Rn measurements at remote sites. All aspects of tracer transport in MIROC4-ACTM is promising for inverse modelling of greenhouse gases sources and sinks at reduced bias.

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Targeting to East Asian summer monsoon for the first time, this study presents an assessment of projection uncertainty in ensemble dynamical downscaling (DDS) simulations. Based on 12-member DDS simulations comprised of three global climate models (GCMs) and four regional climate models (RCMs), we evaluate contributions of GCM and RCM uncertainty to the total uncertainty of summer-time precipitation projections around Japan.

Our results show that contribution of RCM uncertainty can be comparable to that of GCM uncertainty in magnitudes. This finding draws a distinction from the past studies showing the dominance of GCM uncertainty. Most notably, our results show that RCM uncertainty for number of precipitating days appears around and over the land. RCM uncertainty for precipitation amounts also shows a dependence on topography but to a lessor degree. These RCM uncertainty characteristics are potentially linked to the difference in various RCM configurations such as physics schemes and model topography. In contrast, GCM uncertainty mostly appears over the ocean, which can be attributed to the difference in the GCM's future projections of East Asian summer monsoon. Our finding may be of an importance for water disaster and water resource management with DDS.

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The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8-16% for 27-36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the real-time analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.

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Atmospheric radon-222 (²²²Rn) variability is analyzed and compared with model simulations made by the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), with three horizontal resolutions (223, 56, and 14 km), in order to understand high ²²²Rn events predominantly caused by frontal activities. Seasonal variations of event frequency are well reproduced by the model, with correlation coefficients of 0.79 (223 km) to 0.99 (14 km). The three horizontal resolutions can reproduce general features of the observed peak shapes of events in winter, which dominantly reflect the passage of cold fronts that trap dense amounts of ²²²Rn. Peak height and width are well reproduced by the 56 km and 14 km resolution models, while the 223 km resolution model shows much lower and broader peaks due to insufficient resolution. We also find that simulations of ²²²Rn and equivalent potential temperature gradient (|∇θ_e|) during the events show similar horizontal distributions around the ²²²Rn observation station, suggesting |∇θ_e| is a useful tool to understand the variability of atmospheric components around fronts. Consequently, model with horizontal resolution of 56 km and 14 km can well simulate spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric components driven by frontal activities, while 223 km resolution is not enough to reproduce them.

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This study investigates the representation of the diurnal variation of cumulus convection in radiative-convective equilibrium states in an area of 200 km by 200 km without large-scale forcing by using a non-hydrostatic model with sub-kilometer horizontal resolutions. The experiment with the horizontal resolution of 200 m successfully reproduced the diurnal variability of the trimodal characteristics of cumulus convection. We demonstrated that the horizontal resolution dependence largely affects the trimodal structure of clouds and the characteristics of precipitation and its diurnal variation. With the coarse resolution of 1600 m, a signature of convective aggregation appeared and the diurnal variation of convection was not clearly seen. We further examined the mechanisms for the diurnal variation of cumulus convection by focusing on the temporal and vertical variations of radiative and latent heating anomalies. The diurnal variability of the static stability caused by both radiative and latent heating plays a role in characterizing the diurnal variation of the cumulus convection.

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Rossby wave propagation theory is reviewed under two kinds of non-uniform basic flows: the zonal mean (ZM) and horizontally non-uniform (HN) flows in this study. The diagrams in the wavenumber domain for stationary and non-stationary waves embedded in the ZM flow are given and discussed in comparison with previous studies. Then a circle diagram in the group velocity domain for waves embedded in the HN flow is derived from the formulas in forms of three vectors: the wavenumber, background wind and gradient of basic-state absolute velocity. Given the basic state, we can identify the maximum and minimum magnitude of group velocity and its departure from the background wind. These results provide insights into Rossby wave propagation behaviors in the real atmosphere.

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The study presents the contrasting characteristics of cloud-radiative feedbacks to the cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño (EN). The maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the CT-EN are located in the far-eastern Pacific. However, the maximum responses of the shortwave- and longwave- cloud-radiative forcing (SWCRF and LWCRF) to the CT-EN warming are centered near the dateline, showing 70° westward shift relative to the maximum SSTA center of CT-WN. In contrast, the maximum responses of the SWCRF and LWCRF to the WP-EN warming show only slight westward shift relative to the maximum SSTA center. The contrasting cloud-radiative feedbacks to the two types of ENs can be traced back to the contrasting precipitation feedbacks, which is associated with the convection threshold. When the warm SSTA of CT-EN occurs in the relatively cold eastern Pacific, the total SST in-situ may not exceed the convection threshold. Therefore, the induced precipitation anomaly would occur towards the warm western Pacific, and the corresponding cloud cover and cloud-radiative feedbacks would exhibit an apparent westward shift. As the warm SSTA of WP-EN occurs in the relatively warm central Pacific, the corresponding responses of the anomalous fields to the WP-EN show only slight westward displacement.

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There is growing attention that the contrail by aviation may affect the earth's energy balance and climate change. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, the convolutional neural network model termed ContrailMod, which can be used in contrail classification with Himawari-8 stationary satellite and outperforms the representative conventional algorithm contrail detection algorithm (CDA). We estimate the distribution of potential contrail formation using temperature and specific humidity from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim) in South China region. According to the convolutional neural network identification (CNNI) and artificial visual inspection (AVI), we adopt the contrail occurrence and persistence (COP) measured from Himawari-8 stationary satellite imagery to evaluate the potential contrail coverage (PCC) fractions of the ECMWF reanalysis data. There is a high correlation between contrail occurrence and persistence and potential contrail coverage. The correlation coefficient of convolutional neural network identification is close to artificial visual inspection, which illustrates that the parameterization is reliable by comparing the observation results and the actual reflection of contrail coverage in parameterization calculation of South China region.

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This study investigates prediction of TC intensity in the western North Pacific basin using a statistical-dynamical model called the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), with data sources in operations at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) such as the JMA/Global Spectral Model forecast fields. In addition to predicting the change in the maximum wind (Vmax) as in the original SHIPS technique, another version of SHIPS for predicting the change in the minimum sea-level pressure (Pmin) has been developed. With 13 years of training samples, a total of 26 predictors were selected from among 52 through stepwise regression. Based on three years of independent samples, the root mean square errors of both Vmax and Pmin by the 26-predictor SHIPS model were found to be much smaller than those of the JMA/GSM and a simple climatology and persistence intensity model, which JMA official intensity forecasts are currently mainly based on. The prediction accuracy was not sensitive to the number of predictors as long as the leading predictors were included. Benefits of operationalizing SHIPS include a reduction in the errors of the JMA official intensity forecasts and an extension of their forecast length beyond the current 3 days (e.g., 5 days).

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Relationships between daily heat-stroke mortality and temperature were statistically analyzed using Vital Statistics data for 1999 to 2016, with attention to regional differences related to different climate zones. An analysis based on data categorized for each prefecture has revealed that the daily heat-stroke mortality depends not only on daily temperature but also on the summer mean temperature in a way that a prefecture in a cooler summer climate tends to show a higher mortality for a specified value of daily temperature, implying the effect of acclimatization. Additionally, daily heat-stroke mortality is found to be higher for cases of higher temperature on preceding few days to a week, apparently due to accumulated heat stress, but is lower for cases of higher temperature a few weeks ago, presumably due to acclimatization. As for relative humidity, the mortality on a day of higher humidity tends to be higher for a specified value of daily maximum temperature, but lower for a specified value of daily mean temperature. It is also shown that heat-stroke mortality tends to be high on a day of low wind speed and long sunshine hours.

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Videosonde observations were conducted at the southwestern coastal region of Sumatra Island, Indonesia, as part of a pilot field campaign of the Years of the Maritime Continent project (Pre-YMC), to investigate the role of solid hydrometeor for precipitation processes in clouds. Videosondes were launched into three types of clouds: convective and stratiform clouds, and a thick upper stratiform cloud with shallow convection at lower level. A quantitative evaluation of the graupel shape data obtained from the videosondes showed different graupel formations in different rain systems. For the typical stratiform cloud, almost no graupel was observed. In contrasts, for the thick upper stratiform clouds with shallow convection, large numbers of ice crystals in the upper layer suggested to act as embryos and form a lot of graupel with the riming of the supercooled droplets that was supposed to be provided from the shallow convection. On the other hand, for the convection case, the videosonde observed spherical graupel just above the freezing level. This suggested that frozen drops acting as embryos formed spherical graupel, which were uplifted by the strong updraft in the convective cloud, and were different from the generally irregular-shaped graupel in the thick upper stratiform cloud.

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An extreme, damaging rainfall occurred in northern Kyushu in July 2017. Whether such an extreme rainfall is quantitatively captured by numerical models is a challenging issue. We investigate the influences of terrain representation in simulating a stationary convective system and the resulting heavy rainfall for this case by conducting a series of 167-m-resolution numerical experiments. By employing a high-resolution elevation dataset as well as a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme, the control experiment successfully reproduced the stationary, linear-shaped convective system and the associated heavy rainfall. When the model terrain was created by a coarser-resolution elevation dataset, the 167-m-resolution experiment underestimated the accumulated rainfall, because of discretely developing convection and weaker intensities of the rainfall. These impacts of the terrain representation were confirmed to be robust through conducting another experiments with a different microphysics scheme. The representation of model terrains is critically important in simulating stationary convective systems and quantitatively the resulting heavy rainfall.

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Since January 2017 continuous multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) observations have been performed for the first time at Pantnagar (29.03°N, 79.47°E), a semi-urban site located in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region in India. Here we report the formaldehyde (HCHO), glyoxal (CHOCHO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations for the lowest layer (0-1 km) of the retrieved vertical profiles. The ratio of CHOCHO to HCHO concentrations (R_GF), an important tracer indicative of changes in volatile organic compound emissions was estimated. During spring and autumn enhanced concentrations of HCHO and CHOCHO were observed under the influence of biomass burning. The mean R_GF for the whole observation period (January–November) in Pantnagar was estimated to be 0.029 ± 0.006. Comparing with similar MAX-DOAS observations in central Thailand and reported literature values, we found that the R_GF tends to be < ∼0.04 under the influence of biomass burning and/or anthropogenic emissions.

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Tropical cyclone (TC) induced precipitation (TCP) over Japan is evaluated with the rain gauge observation based gridded dataset APHRO_JP. The TC–influenced frequency reaches a maximum in the Nansei Islands and decreases monotonically with latitude. On the other hand, the distribution of TCP indicates different characteristics from the one of TC–influenced frequency. The largest annual TCP, 500 mm yr⁻¹ or more, occurs over eastern Kyushu (E-Kyushu), southern Shikoku (S-Shikoku), and the eastern Kii peninsula (E-Kii), where it accounts for 15% or more of the total precipitation. The maximum daily TCP amounts to 200 mm d⁻¹ in those three areas, which are all located on the eastern side of Japan and correspond to eastward or southeastward topographic inclines. A significant relationship is found between the amount of annual TCP and topographic incline, and the large amount of TCP concentrates in the eastward or the southeastward inclines. The extreme daily TCP once every 50 years is also evaluated. The extreme daily TCP is estimated to be 500 mm d⁻¹ comparable to the climatological annual TCP in E-Kyushu, S-Shikoku, and E-Kii. These three areas appear to be the most hazardous part of Japan in terms of TCP.

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Empirical formulae of the terminal velocity and shape of a water droplet in microphysics parametrizations are derived from experiments or theoretical works and they are only verified under room temperature and standard atmospheric pressure. A two-phase direct numerical simulation model can be a strong tool to improve those empirical formulae under general conditions. Recently, the global B-spline fitting has been applied and its smooth one dimensional (1D) surface reconstruction of water droplets has enabled stable simulations of falling two dimensional (2D) droplets by the immersed boundary method (IBM). However, an extension of the global reconstruction from 1D to 2D is highly complex and is almost impossible to use in a model. To overcome this limitation, an iterative algorithm is proposed for a local smooth surface reconstruction in this work. One significant advantage is its straightforward extension to 2D surfaces. To test the new method, simulations of an axisymmetric free-oscillating water droplet are compared between the global and local surface reconstructions. A further simulation of a rising air bubble is performed to examine the robustness of the new algorithm for the highly distorted interface. This new method opens a pathway to three dimensional (3D) water droplet simulations by the IBM.

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Effects of obstacle-height variability on mixing length and dispersive stress are investigated by conducting large-eddy simulations of airflows over arrays of roughness obstacles with variable height. We evaluate differences among three simulations of flows over obstacles with no, moderate, and high obstacle-height variability. Within the canopies, effective mixing length shows one local maximum and minimum in the simulation with no obstacle-height variability but two maxima and minima in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. The number of the local maxima and minima corresponds to that of the shear layers seen at the heights of obstacle tops. Enhanced dispersive stress appears within the canopy between the heights of the lower- and higher-obstacle tops in the simulations with obstacle-height variability. Particularly in the simulations with high obstacle-height variability, the magnitude of dispersive stress becomes comparable to that of the Reynolds stress at the height of the lower-obstacle top. These results suggest that actual urban areas with high building-height variability should significantly affect properties of mixing length and dispersive stress.

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This paper provides the first attempt to investigate the spatial variability of diurnal change patterns of land surface temperature (LST) in urban areas of Japan by applying principal component analysis on LST data retrieved from Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data. The Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas were the focus of the analysis, and the target days were days with zero cloud cover in summer and winter. The results of the analysis showed that diurnal cycles of LST are mainly formed by two temporal change patterns in both seasons. For the summer case, the first two principal components (PCs) represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and phase, respectively. For the winter case, the first two PCs represented the temporal change patterns related to the amplitude and gradual change in LST throughout the day, respectively. Results suggest that these temporal change patterns in both seasons have spatial variability partially dictated by land use and wind speed/direction.

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Four cases of heavy rainfall over Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi during mid-June are simulated by the two-dimensional (2D) cloud-resolving model using the large-scale forcing data derived from the 6-hourly ERA-Interim data set. The simulations are used to conduct budget analysis of precipitation and energetics associated with the development of torrential rainfall. Surface rainfall is dominated by water vapor convergence (Q_WVF) in water vapor related surface rainfall budget and heat divergence (S_HF) in thermally related surface rain budget. The high linear correlation coefficients between water vapor related precipitation efficiency (PEWV) and heat related precipitation efficiency (PEH) stem from the statistical similarities between Q_WVF and S_HF. The diurnal variations of surface rainfall correspond to the upward motions. An energy conversion efficiency is defined as the ratio of perturbation kinetic-energy to convective available potential energy to measure how efficiently the secondary circulations develop under the consumption of the convective available potential energy. The diurnal variations of energy conversion efficiency generally are in phase with the rainfall, indicating importance of interaction between dynamics and water vapor in build-up of rainfall peaks.

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Radar/Raingauge-Analyzed Precipitation (RA) represents 1 km-grid precipitation after 2006 created by combining radar precipitation and ground precipitation, i.e., Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) of Japan Meteorological Agency along with ground data observed by other organizations. Although RA is slightly greater than ground precipitation, no earlier studies investigated the spatial distribution of this accuracy across Japan using 1 km grid data, as clarified in this study. We selected hourly data of RA and AMeDAS located closest each other, for which miss rates were less than 10% in 2006-2010. We then investigated the distribution of the annual precipitation ratio (RA/AMeDAS). The ratio diverged in the smaller annual precipitation, but converged to ca. 1.2 for larger annual precipitation. By setting the observational area of 46 radars across Japan using Thiessen method, we investigated the relation between the annual precipitation ratio and the distance from the radar to AMeDAS station. We found only negative relation was statistically significant. As a possible reason for this relation, we considered that RA far from the radar is affected by the attenuating and shadowing effect of heavy rainfall near the radar.

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The Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model with default parameter settings largely underestimates the diurnal variation of land surface temperature (LST) and hence the formation of summertime diurnal convective clouds over the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are the primary target of cloud seeding in the UAE. Based on sensitivity experiment results, we optimized a set of land surface parameters to minimize the underestimation of LST and improve the performance of weather simulations over deserts and mountains in the UAE. In the optimized experiment, the difference in LST between Aqua/MODIS observations and CReSS simulation results decreased from 13.0 to 2.3 K under daytime conditions, mainly due to decreased evapotranspiration efficiency and soil thermal diffusivity. Moreover, the difference decreased from 3.8 to 2.0 K under nighttime conditions, mainly due to decreased evapotranspiration efficiency and increased soil temperature at the deepest layer. A decrease in roughness length suppressed the increase in surface air temperature (SAT), contributing to the reproduction of a realistically large difference between LST and SAT during the daytime. The improvement in temperature matching demonstrates that the CReSS model, when used at a 1-km horizontal resolution, accurately simulates the formation of diurnal convective clouds and development of precipitation over deserts in the UAE and low mountains in northeastern UAE.

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Using data from nine ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), we analyze uncertainties in forecasted tropical cyclone TC track (TCT), TC intensity (TCI) and relevant heavy rainfall (TCHR) for Typhoon Soudelor (2015) as it affected the Taiwan Strait and surrounding regions. The largest uncertainties in track predictions occurred when Soudelor traversed Taiwan and when it recurved northeastward after making landfall in mainland China. These large uncertainties seem to be ascribed to the topography of Taiwan and the spread of the perturbed steering flows, respectively. TCI spread was stronger before rather than after the Soudelor made landfall, with regional EPSs having stronger spread than global EPSs. This TCI spread showed high correlation with the evolution of the spread of vertical wind shear at the location of TC center. Large spread in 24-h TCHR during Soudelor's landfall correlated with low-level jets and convergences in most EPSs, and TC track variation had played important role in TCHR uncertainty. At last, the spread–skill relationships among different groups are explored.

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