The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of conjectural variations on economic welfare, by using the model of intra-industry trade. So this paper develops a model of a two-sector economy trade (the one sector is perfectly competitive, the other is monopolistically competitive) with two factors of production, and introduces conjectural variations into the model. As a result, in terms of certain parameter values and conjectural variations, the level of economic welfare of open economy is lower than that of closed economy. This paper analyzes this result, and makes the characteristic of the model of intra-industry trade clear

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災害に対する事前の備えが不完全であった場合, 被災した家計や企業, 政府は復旧資金を事後的に調達する. 家計の時間軸上の視野が有限な場合, 政府の財政調達方法は家計の消費行動や経済の長期的な動学過程に影響を及ぼす. また, モデルにおける一国が被災した場合, 社会は瞬時に復旧のための資本を調達することができない. 一方, 開放経済モデルにおける小国が被災した場合, 資本市場の利子率は影響を受けず, 海外資本が流入して被災国の生産水準は瞬時に回復する. 本研究では世代重複モデルを用いて, 災害被害を全ての世代に均等に負担させるタイプの災害復興財政が, と開放経済の被災後の動学過程に与える影響について分析する.

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Presently, most people consume not only domestic products but also imported goods. Such consumption of tradable goods has become extremely widespread. Consequently, international trade has developed to an astounding degree. The steady expansion of international trade has led researchers to become more engaged with corresponding difficulties such as free trade problems associated with the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP）. Simultaneously, global warming, in particular, the emission of greenhouse gases （GHG） by developing countries, constitutes a daunting problem. The GHG emissions from one country affect not only that country but also neighboring countries. Similarly, the production of goods for export increases pollution in exporting and importing countries because citizens consuming imported goods are exposed to trans-boundary air pollution caused by the GHGs emitted during production processes by firms in the exporting country. Therefore, the occurrence of trans-boundary air pollution caused by international trade is an extremely important issue from the perspective of environmental economics.
Focusing on the introduction of environmental taxes and consumption of tradable goods under transboundary pollution, this paper presents analyses of differences related to decisions on environmental taxes in individual countries, with a comparison of cases with and without consumption of tradable goods.
This paper presents the following results. Comparison of environmental taxes with and without consumption of tradable goods reveals that when the degree of transboundary pollution is small （large）, the environmental tax rate chosen under open economies is higher （lower） than that decided under closed economies. Next, we compare social welfare with and without consumption of tradable goods. The welfare level is always greater under the closed economies for any degree of transboundary pollution.

JEL Classification: H23, H71, Q53, Q58

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本論文は, 発展途上国の政治構造の現実を考慮に入れて, 国際資本移動の自由化が途上国の公共政策の決定にいかなる影響を及ぼすのかを分析する.途上国では, 資本の所有者である富裕層が政策決定の実権を独占していることが多い.本論文では, こうした非民主主義的な政治構造の下で, 資本移動が自由化されると国内への公共投資が縮小することが示される.公共投資が縮小するのは, 資本移動の自由化の下で, 資本の収益率が国際資本市場で決定されるようになると, 富裕層が国内生産の生産性を高めるインセンティブを失うためである.一方, 公共投資の縮小による国内生産の生産性の低下は, 国際間を容易に移動できない労働のみを生産要素として所有する貧困層の所得と厚生の低下をもたらす.とくに, では, 富裕層と貧困層が望む公共投資の水準は一致しうるが, 資本移動が許される開放経済では, 両者が望む公共投資の水準が大きく乖離することが示される.このことは, 資本移動の自由化によって, 富裕層と貧困層の間に公共投資の決定をめぐって階層対立が生まれることを意味する.また, 本論文では, 資本移動が自由化されたとき, 国内生産の生産性の低下に伴い途上国から資本が流出する可能性が示される.したがって, 本論文の分析は, 資本移動の自由化の下で, 資本が資本の希少な途上国から資本の豊富な先進国へ移動するという逆説, いわゆるキャピタルフロー・パラドックスに対しても新たな説明を与えるものとなる.

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　　In the conventional trade models such as the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohiln model, the law of comparative advantage prevails when a country exports with an autarkic relative price is lower than the other countries when there are no market failures.　Introduction of public intermediate goods generally disturbs the general equilibrium of the economy depending on how much is supplied, so the law of comparative advantage as described may not hold under free trade.　When a public intermediate goods the type of defined by Meade（1952） are introduced into a traditional neoclassical trade model, the production possibility frontier has a shape strictly convex to the origin.　This may bring forth of a pattern of trade that does not follow the law of comparative advantage even with reasonable behavior of the government to supply the public intermediate goods.　This paper considers two different ways of supplying the public intermediate goods that a government adopts in a Ricardian model with a public intermediate goods.　Then we show that, while both ways are efficient, but one way maintains the law of comparative advantage whereas the other one does not.　However, both ways assure the gains from trade.

JEL Classifications:R1, A5

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各期の頭に初期保有量として与えられる財が世代間で異なっていれば, から開放経済に移ることが世代間の所得再分配をもたらすことは, 比較優位説から予想されるものである。この論文では, もし資本市場が不完全であり, 経済開放が外貨建ての貯金の可能性を新たにもたらすのであれば, それが開放された経済の成長を阻害し, 後世代の福祉に負の外部効果をもたらす可能性があることを示している。この結論は多くの開発途上国や旧社会主義国の市場経済移行に対して政策的な含意をもっている。

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　　In previous studies on theoretical new economic geography, a 2 regions framework and numerical analysis framework have been adopted.　However, these 2 frameworks create problems in the study of empirical research.　The 2-regional model is not good for research on core-periphery patterns of multi-regional transportation improvements.　Whereas, the numerical analysis is theoretically difficult to understand what parameters affect the conclusion.　In this study, I constructed a new economic geography model with 5 linear regions in a theoretical and analytically solvable framework and analyzed the core-periphery patterns across regions in transportation improvements for each link.　The main conclusions are as follows.　Under the circumstances of autarky economy or symmetry equilibrium transport costs were very high, and all link improvements across all regions brought straw effects to the fringe region.　Also for single link improvements, the number of firms increasing in the regions that directly improved transport costs across each region and the number of firms decreasing in regions that were not directly connected across regions were elucidated.　The number of firms increased in regions where transportation was linked with another region improved directly.　On the other hand, the number of firms decreasing in regions where transportation was linked with another region improved indirectly.

JEL Classifications: R12, R40

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There is vast literature on the theory of optimal tariffs to maximize the economic welfare of a home country. The optimal tariff rate is positive in large countries, but the rate is zero in small countries. However, little attention, has been paid to the market structure in the concerned industries. Most of the literature focuses on a short run analysis or a long run analysis. In this paper, we present another concept of period, the intermediate run. In an intermediate run, each firm freely moves among industries, while the total number of firms in an economy is fixed.
To address this issue, we developed an international trade model suitable for explaining the intermediate run. A fixed number of oligopolistic firms operate and each firm can locate (operate) either in an importing industry or a non-traded industry. The two industries have an identical market size, each domestic and foreign firm has the same cost function and each industry engages in Cournot competition.
In this intermediate run model, the profit of each domestic firm is equalized in the two industries because each firm moves among industries to seek a higher profit. When free trade prevails in the importing country, domestic firms insufficiently locate in the importing industry from the economic welfare viewpoint. By imposing a tariff, more domestic firms locate in the importing industry in equilibrium, the resulting industry structure of the economy becomes more efficient and economic welfare is improved. Owing to this inter-industry movement of oligopolistic firms, observed only in the intermediate run, the optimal tariff rate becomes higher in the intermediate run equilibrium than in the short run equilibrium when the number of firms is fixed in each industry, that is, the short run.

JEL Classification: F12, F13, L13

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本研究では, コスト要因に時間コストを用いた場合, 食物消費量に対してコスト要因と便益要因の等価性が成立し, さらに単位価格の広範囲の変化に対して正に減速する需要曲線が記述できるか, また, 3種類の短時間セッションにおいて需要曲線の形状に違いがみられるか否かを明らかにすることを目的とした。
時間コストとして, 固定間隔 (fixed interval : FI) スケジュールが用いられた。まず4つのFI値が, 便益要因となる強化子提示時間の6秒と組み合わされた条件 (6秒条件) において, 単位価格 (FI値/強化子提示時間) が6セッション毎に上昇系列で提示された。この手続きを3種類の短時間セッション時間 (1.5, 3, 4.5時間) で繰り返した後に, 比率を固定したままFI値と強化子提示時間をそれぞれ半分にした単位価格 (3秒条件) が6秒条件と同じ手続きで導入された。コスト要因と便益要因の等価性は, 単位価格の関数としてプロットされた8つの平均消費量に対して, Hursh et al. (1988) によって提案された等式 (1) のあてはめによる分析と, 各単位価格における3秒条件と6秒条件の平均消費量の目視による分析で検討された。
等式 (1) による分析の結果, 3秒と6秒条件の構成要素の違いにもかかわらず, 1つの需要曲線で記述できることが, すべてのセッション時間で確認された (Figure1とTable1の決定係数) 。この結果より, コスト要因に時間コストを用いた場合も, 労力コストを用いた先行研究の結果と同様, コスト要因と便益要因との間に, 等価性が成立することが明らかになった。また, 目視分析の結果, 高い単位価格において, 構成要素間の等価性に逸脱の傾向がみられた。これらの結果より, コスト要因に時間コストを用いた実験場面への単位価格の拡張とコスト要因と便益要因の機能的等価性の限界が示された。
等式 (1) によるパラメータの分析により, 3種類のセッション時間の操作が, 食物消費における弾力性と水準に対して, 2個体に共通した体系的な効果を及ぼさないことが示され (Table1), さらに正に減速する需要曲線が得られた (Figufe1) 。しかしながら, 弾力性を示すaの値に注目すると, セッション時間の減少に対して, 弾力性が大きくなる傾向が1個体でみられ, 封鎖経済的実験環境の需要曲線分析において所得水準の設定が1.5時間セッションで十分であるという確証は得られなかった。

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This paper develops a two-country, two-sector model of international trade in which the stock of environmental capital accumulates over time. It shows how the pattern of production and the welfare level of each country change by opening trade when there is production externalities in the form of worldwide-scale pollution.
There have appeared many theoretical studies on the interaction between trade and the environment. Among them, we focus on the model of Copeland and Taylor [3] (1999) which analyzes the pattern of production and the welfare level of each country in the Ricardian type of trade model with local environmental pollution.
In this paper we re-examined their analysis under the supposition that pollution generated in one country possibly influences the economic activities of other countries. Then we show essentially the same results as those in Copeland and Taylor's analysis. But we deepen their analysis and obtain an implication that the relationship between the relative demand of manufacturing goods to the agricultural ones and the relative level of foreign environmental capital to the home one plays the significant role in determining the pattern of production. In addition, we make clear the relationship between the pattern of production and the transboundary degree of pollution.

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