Distribution of winter precipitation in Japan was compared for the cases of warm and cold win-ters. In winter, the Japan Sea coast area has a great deal of precipitation brought by the NW mon-soon, whereas the Pacific coast area is dominated by dry weather because the mountains have a “rain shadow” effect against the NW monsoon. Precipitation along the Pacific coast is ordinarily brought by extratropical cyclones passing through off the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Sometimes cyclones emerge in the Japan Sea and bring some precipitation in the area of the Japan Sea coast.
In cold the contrast in distribution of precipitation between the Japan Sea coast and the Pacific coast becomes more marked because of the more persistent and severe NW monsoon. In warm , however, such contrast becomes obscure and cyclone precipitation dominates the whole country (Fig. 5).
Six were selected as warm and cold from 27 (1953/54-1979/80) by the following method. A winter surface temperature (three months: Dec. -Feb.) was represented by nine 10-day mean values. When the 10-day value was higher (lower) than the normal by one standard deviation, it was counted as a warm (cold) 10-day period. The numbers of warm and cold 10-day periods were counted for ten meteorological stations (see Fig. 1-c). The that had a large number of warm (cold) periods and a very small number of cold (warm) periods were selected as warm (cold) (Fig. 2).
Figure 4 shows the average precipitation rate and its ratio to normal values for the periods. In a warm winter relatively heavy precipitation (above normal) was observed over a broad area except the Japan Sea coast area, whereas in a cold winter the distribution showed the reverse pattern.
Synoptic factors bringing precipitation were classified by using daily synoptic charts (Table 1). Figure 6 shows these factors: 1) M-type, in which the pressure patterns are “West-high East-low” type and NW monsoon is strong, 2) L-type, in which extratropical cyclones are situated in the vicinity of Japan and the NW monsoon is very weak or absent, 3) ML-type, which means a transi-tional pattern from L-type to M-type, and 4) 0-type, which means “others” The occurrence fre-quency for the six (Table 2) shows that about 70% of total days were classified as days with M- and L-type precipitation.
Figures 7 and 8 show the precipitation amounts and percentage of total amount for each factor, respectively. M-type precipitation dominated the Japan Sea coast area, especially in the central part of Honshu Island; the percentage value exceeded 50% in cold , whereas it was about 20% in warm . L-type is the only main factor in the Pacific coast area, so this type showed about 80% in either warm or cold . In addition, L-type precipitation is fairly abundant in warm even in the Japan Sea coast area, and this became the dominant factor in warm almost all over Japan except in the central part of Honshu Island.
In sum, during warm most precipitation in the whole country was caused by extratro-pical cyclones, whereas in cold the NW monsoon caused a great deal of much precipitation and dominated in the Japan Sea coast area. The only area with above (below) normal precipitation in cold (warm) was the central part of the Japan Sea coast of Honshu, Island, because of the greater increase (decrease) in M-type precipitation than the decrease (increase) in L-type precipitation.

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This study focuses on Autolycus, a rogue in William Shakespeare’s The

Tale (1611), and his movements from Bohemia to Sicilia, two countries with vastly differing cultures. I examine how his movements coincide with the situation of other individuals who, like Autolycus, moved from place to place in early modern England. This study clarifies the meanings behind Autolycus’ roles in the play. In Act 4, Scene 4, he coincidentally meets Camillo, a favourite of both Leontes and Polixenes, and Florizel, a prince of Bohemia. He is told by Camillo to swap clothes with Florizel and spontaneously accompanies them, escaping from the pastoral region where he grew up, to a country that is completely different from his own, by crossing the imaginary sea of Bohemia. Although during this period it was rare for ordinary people to travel to other countries, the spectators should have known Bohemia by name due to the royal marriage of Princess Elizabeth to Frederick, Elector Palatine of Bohemia. This study aims to trace the route taken by Autolycus and reflect on how it represents the audience’s image of the scope of activities for peddlers, cony-catchers, and swindlers, from both geographical and historical viewpoints, in early modern England.

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The Holt- method has been widely used to forecast a seasonal time series in application fields as a nonparametric forecasting technique. In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic forecast errors of the Holt- method. For that purpose, we show that the nonlinear least squares estimates of the smoothing parameters included in the smoothing algorithm hold strong convergence properties under suitable conditions. Then we show the mean squared errors and the limiting distributions of the forecast errors for some stochastic processes. Finally, numerical studies are performed to evaluate the forecasting performance of the Holt- method.

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Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons has a holarctic breeding distribution and is polymorphic. Three subspecies winter in the Palaearctic region, one of which also in the Nearctic region: European White-fronted Goose A. a. albifrons breeds in the far north of Europe and Asia and in the south and west of Europe; Pacific White-fronted Goose A. a. frontalis breeds in east Siberia and Arctic Canada and in East Asia and United States; and Greenland White-fronted Goose A. a. flavirostris breeds in Greenland and in Ireland and western Scotland. The phylogenetic relationships among these three subspecies are unclear. We determined the mitochondrial DNA control region sequences of Pacific White-fronted Goose, using 66 shed feathers collected from wintering sites in Japan, and compared the sequences with those previously published for Greater White-fronted Goose subspecies. Phylogenetic trees and networks revealed that there are three clades within the species. The sequence divergence among the clades corresponds to divergence long before the last glacial maximum (15–25 thousand years ago), which suggests the existence of at least three ancient refugia for the species. However, all three subspecies consist of haplotypes from two of the three clades. This suggests that they originated from individuals that survived in two refugia during the last glacial period.

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It seems for us to have more and more colder or warmer in these days. This Paper studied about the wind over sea near Japan in colder and warmer , respectively for Jan., Feb., of 1974 and 1977 and of 1969 and 1979. The difference and the characteristic of the wind speed between the two cases and their distributions were studied. Frictional coefficient, and unstable coefficient due to sea and air temperature difference were taken into account to calculate the wind speed, after getting gradient wind or geostrophic wind from weather charts. The observational wind speeds by ship were compared with the theoretical ones to check if they would coincide. The results are as follows. First, the maximum wind speed area is extending along 33°〜36°N of mid-latitude in colder . So, the other strong wind area is appeared near Japan as cyclones are apt to pass by it in warmer . Secondly, when Zonal Index is high, strong wind area is in the east from 160°E. When it is low, the area moves to west.

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Oseltamivir has been used for treatment of influenza A and B infections, but recent reports documented that it was less active against the latter. We compared the effectiveness of oseltamivir in children between laboratory confirmed influenza A and B over 4 influenza seasons from 2001 to 2005 in a pediatric clinic in Japan. Among 1,848 patients screened, 299 influenza A and 209 influenza B patients were administered oseltamivir (treated groups), and 28 influenza A and 66 influenza B patients were assigned as non-treated groups. The duration of fever, defined as period when patients had the maximum temperature higher than 37.5°C in three-time measurements in a day after the clinic visit, was evaluated among the four groups. In uni-variate analysis, the duration of fever was shorter for treated group than non-treated for influenza A (1.8 ± 0.9 days vs 2.6 ± 1.3 days, p < 0.01), but it was not significant for influenza B (2.4 ± 1.3 days vs 2.8 ± 1.2 days, p = 0.9). The fever duration was longer in treated influenza B than A patients (p < 0.01). Multi-variate analysis indicated younger age (< 6 years old) and higher body temperature at the clinic visit prolonged the duration of fever. Adjusted average duration of fever indicated that oseltamivir was effective for both types, but more effective on influenza A, and the benefit increased for younger children. Our data provide evidence that oseltamivir is beneficial for influenza infections, but the effectiveness is differed by type and age.

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To determine the annual and seasonal patterns in the transport of seeds by Great Tits Parus major, we investigated the species and number of seeds in the feces of Great Tits deposited in roost boxes during the of 1992–99. At least 63 morphological types of seeds were considered to have been transported after they were eaten by the tits and excreted into the feces. Forty-nine of the 63 seed types were excreted only in one of the seven . These results suggest that Great Tits transported seeds of various plant species sporadically.

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Influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the stratosphere-troposphere dynamical linkage during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events is investigated based upon the composite analysis using 44 winter record of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. Stratospheric waves with zonal wavenumber 1 (2), which are linked with tropospheric teleconnections over the Pacific-North America-Atlantic sector (the Eurasian sector), are important for the onset of SSWs during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO. During the cold phase, easterly anomalies associated with SSWs penetrate into the troposphere, and annular-mode-like height anomalies appear subsequently in the troposphere. On the other hand, during the warm phase, easterly anomalies are restricted in the stratosphere, and zonally asymmetric height anomalies are observed in the troposphere about 10 days after the warming peak in the stratosphere. Modulation of storm track activities due to lower stratospheric anomalies is found to be important for the downward penetration of zonal wind anomalies into the troposphere.

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冬季北半球における、西太平洋パターン(WP)および太平洋・北アメリカパターン(PNA)の出現が、2年振動する南シナ海の海面水温とこれに関係する熱帯西太平洋上の降水量の変動と統計的に次のように関係していることが分かった。
(1) NINO4の海面水温偏差が正(負)で、フィリピンの東で降水が抑えられる(活発化する)時、WP(逆符号のWP)パターンが現れる傾向があり、このことは局所的なハドレー循環の理論と定性的に一致する。
(2) NINO4の海面水温偏差が正(負)で、フィリピンの東で負(正)の降水偏差が小さいか、または西方にシフトしている時、PNA(逆符号のPNA)パターンがWP(逆符号のWP)パターンよりむしろ現れる傾向がある。
(3) 上記の熱帯西太平洋での降水量の変動は、南シナ海の海面水温の2年振動を説明する降水量の変動と一致する。

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Between November 1997 and February 2000, winter migratory waterfowls of several species staying in San-in district, western Japan were surveyed for influenza A virus and paramyxovirus at four stations. A total of 18 influenza A viruses was isolated from 1,404 fecal samples of whistling swans, pintails, mallards, and white-fronted geese. Five different hemagglutinins and eight neuraminidases were identified in the viruses isolated, in 11 different combinations, including H7N8 related to a subtype of a highly pathogenic chicken virus. In 2000, five lentogenic (non-pathogenic) Newcastle disease viruses were also isolated from white-fronted geese. These results suggested that possible precursor viruses for highly pathogenic avian myxoviruses are still brought into Japan by migratory waterfowls. The results also support the contention that continued surveillance of wild waterfowl population should be an integral part of control policies for these serious poultry diseases.

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3mb面における北半球極渦の年々変動を,21年間の冬季にわたって,その強さを表わすと考えられる2つの指標を用いて調べた。成層圏突然昇温はこの指標に明瞭に反映しているが,それは年々変動の一部分を説明するにすぎない。これまで,成層圏極渦の強さと,赤道成層圏準二年周期振動及び熱帯対流圏のSouthern Oscillationとの間に何らかの関係のあることが言われてきたが,それについても同じ指標に基づいて調べてみた。これらの対応関係はこの解析でも明瞭に見えるが,必ずしもすべての冬について極渦の強さの偏差に現われるとは限らないことがわかった。

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前報(Part I, Hanawa et al.,1989)に続き、北太平洋上の風の海面応力ベクトル場を、ENSOイベントに着目して合成図解析手法により調べた。1961年から1984年までの24年間の冬季を Hanawa et al.(1988)が行ったように、ENSO。1年、 ENSO年、 ENSO+1年、他の年の冬季の4つのカテゴリに分類した。
4つのカテゴリの冬季の中で、ENSO年冬季のアノマリベクトル場は、相対的によく組織化されており、西部北太平洋中緯度や低緯度域では、Part Iで示された"暖かい冬"の場とよく似ているものであった。すなわち、東アジア冬季モンスーン(季節風)は弱まり、赤道域のアノマリベクトル場は、強化された風の収束域(対流の中心)が、中部から東部太平洋に広がっていることを示していた。東アジアモンスーンの弱まりは、Hanawa et al.(1988)が示したENSO年冬季における日本近海の顕著な正のSSTアノマリの出現を説明するものである。しかしながら、中緯度偏西風は北ヘシフトしているが、Part Iの"暖かい冬"や他の3つの冬季と比較して強まっていることがわかった。
海面気圧場に対する合成図解析は、アリューシャン低気圧の発達と東方への移動を示していた。また、北太平洋上では中緯度に正のアノマリ、高緯度に負のアノマリが出現し、これは中緯度の偏西風の強化と対応している。
ENSO年冬季を除く他の3つのカテゴリの冬季では、アノマリベクトル場の安定度は低く、Part Iで導入した"相似度"のスコアの時系列は、各カテゴリに対して合成されたアノマリ場は典型的なものではないことを示していた。すなわち、大規模スケールの特徴的なパターンをこの解析では抽出することができなかった。このことから、ENSOイベントは、確かにENSO年冬季の中•高緯度の循環場に大きな影響を与え.ているが、少なくとも中•高緯度の冬季の海面風応力場の特徴を抽出する際の良いサンプリング条件ではないといえる。

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冬季成層圏循環の年々変動の解析を行なった。HoltonとTan(1980)によって示唆された赤道域と中高緯度循環の関係を念頭に置き,北極における30mbの月平均気温を26年間にわたって,赤道域50mbの準二年周期振動(QBO)の位相に対応してグループ分けした結果,以下のことがわかった。
すなわち,赤道下部成層圏(50mb)の平均帯状流が西風のとき,冬の極域の成層圏は比較的擾乱の弱い低温を示し,波数2型が出現しやすい傾向を持つ。この状況では,太陽黒点数極大の時期を除けば,真冬の強い突然昇温は起りにくい。
これに対し,赤道QBOに伴なう平均流が東風の時期には,初冬に波数1の波の発達する傾向があり,それに伴なって真冬には強い突然昇温がしばしば見られ,極域の気温は一般に高くなる。

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The extraordinary severe in which it was so cold that the river Yodo froze at Osaka (34°39'N, 135°32'E) and its vicinity had been successively occurred around A. D. 1820, where the eustatic curve established by Van Veen proves its minimum point during the recent 250 years. (Fig. 1)
The great famines in the period of recorded history in Japan had been occurred in the epochs of Tenmei (A. D. 1782-A. D. 1787) and Tenpo (A. D. 1833-A. D. 1839), holding the severe period of between them.
The secular rising trend of winter and summer temperatures in the recent instrumental age in Japan. (Fig. 2) is considered to be connected with the trend of warming from so called “Little Ice Age” in the beginning of the 19th century in Japan, in which the climate is generally characterized by the predominance of cold and snowy and of cooler and pluvial summers in Japan.
It must be noticed that the amount of precipitations seems to have been changing with the opposite tendency in the Pacific side of Japan and in the northern part of Japan Island, that is to say, Hokkaido and Korea. (Fig. 3)
By analogical reasonings and synthetic estimations, the following presumable conclusions are derived on the climatic conditions in the historical age of Japan.
(i) The climate around A. D. 700 is concluded to be colder in and cooler and more rainy in summers than at present.
(ii) “Little Climatic Optimum” is presumed centering around the 9th century, in which the climate was generally warmer and drier in the central and south-western part of Japan, but probably more rainy in Hokkaido districts than today.
(iii) Corresponding to the PARIA Emergence of the eustatic curve of Fairbridge, the significant deterioration of the climate appears to have set in towards the 15th century, in which it was presumed to be severe in Japan and dry in summer in Korea.

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A reliable demand forecasting method is required to improve the overall planning of remanufacturing. Drawing on a Holt- method and Weibull distribution method, prior research proposed a method to forecast demand for auto parts remanufacturing. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed method, the authors used the actual time-series data of the sales of remanufactured alternators. The average error rate between actual and estimated data were 35.3% for Holt- method and 41.7% for Weibull Distribution method. To improve the accuracy of demand forecasting, this paper modifies the Weibull distribution by applying limitation method and categorization method. By applying modified method, the average error rate of forecasting was improved to 24.9%.

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The guenons are a recent primate radiation that exhibit high degrees of sympatry, and commonly form mixed-species groups. Hybridization is possible, yet rare in most populations. Guenons have species-specific colorful face patterns hypothesized to function as signals used in species discrimination. Here, consistent with this, I present our studies showing that guenon faces exhibit character displacement, with species being more facially distinctive specifically from the species that they overlap with geographically. I then show that species can be reliably classified by these facial patterns, including specific components of these faces, and present machine classification data that reveal the specific regions of faces that are diagnostic for species discrimination for each species. I go on to present new experimental data testing these machine classification results back to live guenons, which show that they do indeed focus primarily on those regions when presented with the faces of different species. Collectively, our results suggest that guenon face patterns have evolved as mate discrimination signals that facilitate reproductive isolation between species. Our research adds to our understanding of the relationship between reproductive isolation and phenotypic diversity among the primates.

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The Indian Water Rights issues are issues of tribal sovereignty. The Indian reserved water rights doctrine, also known as

doctrine, was established through the U.S. Supreme Court decision,

Winters

v. United States (1908). In the decision, the Court decided that sufficient water should be implicitly reserved to fulfill the purpose of establishment of Indian reservations. Indian reserved water rights possess seniority over state water uses and retain validity regardless of whether tribes have put the water to beneficial use or not.

doctrine’s significance lies in its respect for treaty rights of native nations which had been disgraced by previous court cases. The Marshall trilogy, a series of U.S. Supreme Court decisions in the 1820s and 30s, denied the aboriginal land rights of native nations and justified federal power over tribal sovereignty; Native nations were defined as domestic dependent nations and put under federal laws. In the cases of United States v. Kagama, (1886) and Lone Wolf v. Hitchcock (1903), the Supreme Court declared that the U.S. Congress possesses “plenary power,” and its authority could abrogate United States’ treaty obligations promised to native nations.

The

decision left a window for tribes to exercise their sovereign power. However, for years, the doctrine had not brought the promised water to reservations. Federal assistance needed to assert tribes’ water rights had not been provided. While the Bureau of Indian Affairs had neglected irrigation projects in reservations, the Bureau of Reclamation offered generous funds to water resource developments in the West, exploiting native water.

The

doctrine was long neglected and resurrected by Arizona v. California (1963) which set PIA standards to calculate the amount of water promised to tribes. In the 1970s, Montana tribes fought a series of court cases against the state’s attempt to apply state water laws to the tribes’ reserved water. To reclaim their water rights, tribes had to deal with the McCarran Amendment (1952), the purpose of which was to settle water disputes between Western states and the United States. The amendment waives federal sovereign immunity in general stream adjudications in state courts, placing tribes’ water rights under state jurisdiction.

The series of rulings, such as U.S. v. Dist. Court for Eagle County (1971), Colo. River Water Cons. Dist. v. U.S. (1976), and Arizona v. San Carlos Apache Tribe (1983), had made the amendment applicable to Indian reserved water rights and made them vulnerable to state water laws. Arguing against this odd set by the McCarran Amendment, native tribes redefined “trust relationship” by which federal government had taken advantage of

doctrine for its own benefit. Eventually, the tribes made their way into water negotiation with states, beginning to finalize tribe-state water rights compacts in the 1980s.

Defending tribal sovereignty in contemporary resource war, native nations not only reclaimed long-forgotten Indian reserved water rights, but also established equal standing required to achieve water agreements in three-way relationship of tribe-state-federal government.

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