抄録
The purpose of this study is to propose how to estimate the life risk of inhabitants quantitatively in case of building fires. The life risk is defined in the evaluation method as "the frequency that smoke prevents inhabitants evacuating from space (i) per unit time", assuming that the frequency of being trapped by smoke is relative to the life risk. The Procedure is as follows ; (1) It is assumed that a fire breaks out at all spaces "j" (j=1, n) (2) According to occurrence of fire at space "j", spreading of fire and smoke, operation of fire prevention equipments, staff's hehavior and evacuation of inhabitants are simulated, and the impossibility of evacuation is judged by overlapping the movement of smoke and inhabitants on the same time scale. (3) In simulation (2) , based on success/failure of some significant factors (automatic fire detectors, sprinkler, using fire extinguisher, open/closed of fire door), the phenomena are simplified into some sequences "k" (k=1, m) by using Event Tree. (4) Using probabilities of each sequences and each simulation's outputs, the life risk of space "i" (R_t) is calculated by following formula, [numerical formula] (times/a year) : frequency of fire outbreak in space "j" per year P_k : probability of sequence k in Event Tree T_k (persons) : number of inhabitants in space "i" that can't evacuate in sequence k N_i (persons) : total number of inhabitants in space "i" This evaluation method is applied to the nursing units in 8 hospitals, the figures gained by calculations are in good agreement with common knowledge for fire prevention in hospital planning.
