Risk Analysis of the PV Project with Consideration of Output Suppression

Abstract

Japan instituted a feed-in tariff scheme for renewable energies in July 2012 and it has been contributing to make rapid progress of installing renewables like, especially, PV power. On the other hand, some renewable power companies are getting to face difficulties with connecting their renewable energies to the power grid systems. In this paper, we evaluated the PV projects with consideration of output suppression using Monte Carlo simulation with DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis. The results showed PV projects had the large and uncertain risk under the output suppression of limitless and no warranty.