Motorcycles in Vietnam: Essential Data Estimated until 2014 and Different Impacts of Socio-economic Conditions on Their Growth for Long- and for Short-term

抄録

While motorcycle is the most favorable vehicle kind in Vietnam, their necessary data are very poor. All gathered facts consist of accumulative registered amount (M_reg) and some associated ones. But important information such as data on motorcycles in current traffic circulation (M_cir) is quite absent. Such usage of registration records instead of real data is background for high incorrectness in related policies/countermeasures.
To cover this gap, the paper presents an estimation of different kinds of essential data for motorcycles in traffic circulation until 2014 and also presents a fresh forecast on amount of motorcycles until 2025.
With found data, impacts of socio-economic conditions on the growth of motorcycles are considered and it shows that in contrary to strong impact in long-term, the impact in short-term is very weak that means the existence of additional influence factors. This conclusion has great practical meaning for policy-making in different terms.