抄録
Against the backdrop of profound transformations in the global economic landscape and an increasingly complex and uncertain trade environment, it is becoming increasingly important to examine trade uncertainty from a geographical perspective. This paper systematically analyzes the spatial origins and mechanisms of trade uncertainty through four key dimensions: geopolitical geography, supply chain geography, physical geography and environmental risks, and cultural and institutional geography. The findings highlight that national geographic location and geopolitical attributes play a crucial role in shaping exposure to trade risks; the spatial concentration of global supply chains and the geographical vulnerability of transport corridors enable local shocks to escalate into global trade crises; climate change and the uneven distribution of natural resources further exacerbate uncertainties in supply stability; and cultural heterogeneity and institutional differences generate intangible transaction costs and institutional frictions. This paper aims to construct a multidimensional geographical analytical framework to deepen the understanding of the causes and manifestations of trade uncertainty, thereby providing theoretical support and spatial strategic guidance for enhancing global trade resilience and policy responsiveness.
