抄録
We examine the impact of decreasing Russian wheat exports on the global wheat market and food security by using a partial equilibrium model. The result of this study shows that the decrease in wheat exports in Russia in 2024/25 is projected to increase international wheat prices by 8.7-28.5%. Furthermore, the decrease in Russian wheat exports was projected to have a significant impact on food security in Egypt and India among the model covering countries. Therefore, we consider that Russian wheat market and policy remain one of the biggest uncertainties and risk factors in the global wheat market and food security.
