抄録
This paper formulates and estimates an integrated forecasting model for international air travel demand; a trip generation model including a “composite variable” through a nested logit model of departure airport and destination choice. The integrated model provides an international air travel demand forecasting tool; i) departure airport choice model for which alternative airports are prepared for each destination considering a flight network limitation, ii) destination choice model including a “logsum variable” combining level of service variables of access and line-haul travel, and iii) trip generation model including the “composite variable” combining a destination attraction variable and the “logsum variable”. A case study of the integrated model shows a successful agreement between predicted and observed flows.
