抄録
Water pipeline is the most important infrastructure in our daily life. However, pipeline deterioration is now causing problems for water supply service in Korea. Aged water pipelines need to be efficiently replaced to prevent problems. The present study aims to introduce efficient, gradual pipeline replacement plans, particularly analyzing risks through predicting the number of pipeline damages, the restoration time and water shortage volume. The results were put together and the overall risk ranking was estimated using predicted risk index (PRI). As a result, the highest PRI was given the highest priority for replacement. From these analyses, pipelines were assessed and given a risk ranking. In order to confirm replacement effects utilizing the PRI order, the Monte Carlo simulation was applied to three case studies with changed replacement order. Due to the random occurrence of pipeline accidents in terms of space and time, the Monte Carlo simulation can yield approximate solutions. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations in each case allowed us to confirm the effects of replacement in order of PRI, and can contribute to the decision-making concerning pipeline replacement plans for distribution networks.
