FUTURE CHANGE OF SNAKE LINE PATTERN AND ITS RELATION TO SEDIMENT DISASTERS

抄録

 This study aims to elucidate the future change of the patterns of snake line in a changing climate. Constituted by two parameters, hourly rainfall intensity and soil-water index, a snake line is a curve for judging early-warning on rainfall-triggered sediment disasters. To quantify snake line pattern, we focused on analyzing the geometric range of snake line in terms of the maximal hourly rainfall and soil-water index. We adopted high-resolution future climate projections of 2-km and 5-km Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Models under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Snake lines obtained by climate projections were verified by the reanalyzed precipitation of Radar-AMeDAS. Obvious changing trends for the two parameters and corresponding spatial distributions are revealed on each mesh. Based on six types of snake line stretching, we examined the spatial distributions and statistics of the future changes of snake line patterns as well as their relation to rainfall prone to sediment disasters under the two climate scenarios.