Water resources prediction using multi-climate models in the Kiso River Basin

抄録

The regional water resource and environment have been changing due to climate change. It is essential to predict the impact of climate change for better water management at the regional scale. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the Kiso River Basin from the present (1981-2000), near future (2031-2050) and future (2081-2100) using different 4 climate models. First, bias correction was done using APHRO_JP precipitation data and AMeDAS temperature data. Then, A water and energy budget based integrated water resource model named SiBUC-RRI-ROM was used to predict the impact on water resources. The results indicate the river discharge and dam inflow were various among different climate models. Overall, the ensemble average annual precipitation will increase from present to near future at the basin.